Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 7 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
3:07 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-115, 8) at Toronto Blue Jays
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Blue Jays (70-51) took the opener 5-1, coming through as -125 home favorites. Then the Cubs (68-51) bounced back with a 4-1 win yesterday, cashing as +115 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Cubs send out lefty Matthew Boyd (11-5, 2.45) and the Blue Jays turn to righty Max Scherzer (2-2, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Cubs, pushing Chicago up from a -110 road pick’em to a -115 road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 54% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 49% of moneyline bets and a whopping 79% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road team.
The Cubs have the edge at the plate, hitting 169 homers and scoring 604 runs compared to the Blue Jays hitting 139 homers and scoring 589 runs.
Boyd has posted a 2.25 ERA in two August starts. He has given up zero earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. He is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA in day games.
Chicago has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.83 compared to 4.07 for Toronto.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8 across the market.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 48% of bets and 56% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 73% of bets and a hefty 96% of dollars, further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas banking on a lower scoring game.
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-190, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Mets (64-56) dominated the opener 13-5, cruising as -145 home favorites. Then the Braves (52-68) bounced back with an 11-6 win yesterday, coming through as +170 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Braves hand the ball to righty Bryce Elder (4-9, 6.12 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow righty Kodai Senga (7-4, 2.30 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -185 home favorite and Atlanta a +165 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have quietly backed the Mets to earn a victory and take the series, pushing New York up from -185 to -190, with some books as high as -195.
At Circa, the Mets are receiving 40% of moneyline bets but 58% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 19-6 (76%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 109-68 (62%) with a 4% ROI. Favorites -190 or more playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 41-16 (72%) with a 6% ROI.
The Mets have the more explosive bats, hitting 154 homers and scoring 532 runs compared to the Braves hitting 135 homers and scoring 515 runs.
New York is 35-18 (66%) with a 5% ROI as a home favorite, the 5th best chalk home team in MLB. When facing an opponent with a below .500 record, the Mets are 19-6 (76%) with a 14% ROI as a home favorite.
The Mets are 13-5 in Senga’s 18 starts this season. He is 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, the Braves are 7-12 in Elder’s 19 starts. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 9 starts. He is 2-5 with a 5.61 ERA on the road.
The Mets are 39-22 at home. The Braves are 22-38 on the road.
