Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 4 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12:05 p.m. ET: Athletics (-150, 9) at Washington Nationals
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Athletics (50-66) dominated the opener 16-7, easily cashing as +115 road dogs. Then the Nationals (45-68) bounced back with a 2-1 win yesterday, coming through as +120 home dogs.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Athletics hand the ball to lefty Jacob Lopez (4-6, 3.99 ERA) and the Nationals turn to fellow southpaw Mitchell Parker (7-11, 5.35 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -125 road favorite and Washington a +105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Athletics to earn a victory and take the series, steaming the A’s up from -125 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Athletics are taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the A’s are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor are 59-35 (63%) with a 5% ROI this season. The A’s also have betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Athletics have the more explosive bats, hitting .253 with 159 homers and 510 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .243 with 107 homers and 486 runs scored.
Lopez hasn’t allowed a single run in his past two starts, spanning 9.1 innings pitched. He has a 0.00 ERA in two day starts compared to a 4.76 ERA across 11 night starts.
Meanwhile, Parker has a 7.93 ERA over his past five starts, allowing 23 earned runs in 26.1 innings pitched.
The Athletics are hitting .260 against lefties (6th best in MLB). The Nationals are hitting .236 (18th).
The A’s have performed far better than the Nationals as of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games and hitting .284 with a 3.13 team ERA. Meanwhile, Washington has gone 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .240 with a 7.57 team ERA.
The Nationals are 22-35 at home, the second worst home record in MLB ahead of only the Rockies.
7:15 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (-125, 8.5) at Atlanta Braves
The Marlins (56-57) just dropped two of three against the Astros but avoided the sweep by winning yesterday’s series finale 6-4 as -115 home favorites. On the other hand, the Braves (47-66) just got swept by the Brewers, falling 5-4 yesterday as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins send out righty Eury Perez (4-3, 2.70 ERA) and the Braves counter with fellow righty Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.68 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -115 road favorite and Atlanta a -105 home dog.
Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Marlins, driving Miami up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in their favor.
Sweet spot short favorites -140 or less off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 62-42 (60%) with a 7% ROI since June 1st.
The Braves are 6-25 (19%) with -18.5 units won as a dog, the second worst dog record in MLB ahead of only the Rockies.
Perez has a 1.06 ERA over his last six starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 34 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Carrasco has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 6 of his 9 starts this season.
The Marlins are hitting .261 against righties this season (3rd best in MLB). The Braves are hitting .244 (22nd).
Miami is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .239 with a 4.29 team ERA. On the other hand, the Braves are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .231 with a 5.63 team ERA.
The Marlins also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.99 compared to 4.14 for the Braves.
Miami is 28-26 on the road. Atlanta is 26-29 at home.
