Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with 11 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-110, 9)
The Rays (50-43) just dropped two of three against the Tigers but avoided the sweep, winning 7-3 yesterday as +125 road dogs. On the other hand, the Red Sox (49-45) just swept the Rockies, cruising 10-2 yesterday as -360 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays send out righty Taj Bradley (5-6, 4.79 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to fellow righty Walker Buehler (6-6, 6.25 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Some books opened the Rays a slight -115 road favorite and the Red Sox a -105 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Red Sox, moving Boston to a consensus -110 home pick’em and even up to a -115 home favorite at some shops.
At Circa, Boston is only receiving 35% of moneyline bets but 50% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the more respected wiseguy wagers in Vegas backing the red-hot Red Sox, who have won six straight.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home team is 67-37 (64%) with a 14% ROI this season.
The Red Sox have the more productive bats, hitting 120 homers and scoring 477 runs compared to the Rays hitting 103 homers and scoring 441 runs.
Boston is hitting .272 at home, 2nd best in MLB.
Buehler has faced the Rays twice this season, going 5 innings and allowing 2 earned runs in a 7-4 win and going 7 innings and allowing 3 earned runs in a 4-3 win.
Boston is 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .328 with a 3.20 ERA. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .264 with a 4.55 ERA.
7:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cardinals (49-44) won the opener 4-2, taking care of business as -235 home favorites. Then the Nationals (38-54) bounced back with an 8-2 win yesterday, coming through as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Nationals start righty Michael Soroka (3-6, 5.40 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Miles Mikolas (4-6, 5.26 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and Washington a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cardinals laying modest chalk at home, steaming St. Louis up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Cardinals are receiving 44% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating the more respected wiseguy wagers in their favor.
St. Louis has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cardinals are hitting .263 at home (6th best in MLB) and .260 against righties (2nd). Meanwhile, the Nationals are hitting .246 on the road (12th) and .247 against righties (18th).
Washington is just 3-9 in Soroka’s 12 starts this season. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 8-4 in Mikolas’s last 12 starts.
The Cardinals are 27-18 at home. The Nationals are 20-26 on the road.
9:38 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (-115, 9.5)
The Angels (45-47) have taken two of the first three games in the four-game series, winning 11-8 last night as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Rangers (45-48) hand the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin (5-7, 4.18 ERA) and the Angels counter with righty Jack Kochanowicz (3-8, 5.42 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -125 road favorite and Los Angeles a +105 home dog.
The public is banking on the Rangers to earn a win and split the series. However, despite 68% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Texas, we’ve actually seen this line completely flip in favor of the Angels, steaming Los Angeles from a +105 home dog to a -115 home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Los Angeles.
At Circa, the Angels are only taking in 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 93% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the respected wiseguy wagers in Vegas backing the home team.
When both teams are below .500, the home favorite off a win has gone 50-25 (67%) with an 8% ROI this season. Fading Corbin has resulted in a 10-6 record (63%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Los Angeles has the more explosive offense, hitting 134 homers and scoring 397 runs compared to Texas hitting 96 homers and scoring 366 runs.
The Angels are 22-21 at home this season. The Rangers are 19-29 on the road, tied for the 4th worst road record in MLB.
Texas is 10-20 (33%) for -8.84 units and -30% ROI as a road dog.
