Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with 12-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
2:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 7.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Pirates (44-48) won the opener 12-2, cruising as +145 road dogs. Then the Brewers (54-39) fought back and posted a 9-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -155 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Pirates start rookie righty Paul Skenes (5-0, 2.12 ERA) and the Brewers send out fellow righty Aaron Civale (2-6, 5.18 ERA). This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -135 road favorite and Milwaukee a +120 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to back Pittsburgh and the rookie phenom Skenes. However, despite receiving 69% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Pirates tumble from -135 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Milwaukee, as the line is moving in their direction (+120 to +105) despite receiving only 31% of moneyline bets. The Brewers have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Milwaukee is 21-19 (53%) with a 15% ROI as a dog this season, the 5th-best dog team in MLB. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .257 with 450 runs scored compared to the Pirates hitting .230 with 382 runs scored. Pittsburgh is 22-24 on the road. Milwaukee is 28-14 at home.
3:45 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (-125, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Giants (45-48) took the opener 4-3, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. Then the Blue Jays (42-50) bounced back with a 10-6 win yesterday, cashing as +135 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Kevin Gausman (6-8, 4.64 ERA) and the Giants counter with fellow righty Jordan Hicks (4-5, 3.47 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a +105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Giants laying short chalk at home, steaming San Francisco up from -115 to -125. The Giants are receiving 54% of moneyline bets and 57% of moneyline dollars, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. San Francisco has the superior offense, hitting .244 with 94 homers and 412 runs scored compared to Toronto hitting .235 with 82 homers and 372 runs scored. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 304-193 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 190-129 (60%) with a 1% ROI. The Giants have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is favored to win. The Blue Jays are just 2-5 in Gausman’s last seven starts. Hicks has a 3.12 ERA at home compared to 3.89 on the road. San Francisco is 26-20 at home. Toronto is 21-26 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-115, 8) at Arizona Diamondbacks
This is the final game of a four-game series. The Braves (51-40) took the first two games, winning 5-4 in extra innings as -195 road favorites and then winning again 6-2 as -115 road favorites. Then the Diamondbacks (46-47) clawed back with a 7-5 win yesterday, cashing as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Braves start lefty Max Fried (7-4, 3.18 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to righty Brandon Pfaadt (3-6, 4.19 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -145 road favorite and Arizona a +130 home dog. The public is laying the chalk with the Braves, who have the better record. However, despite receiving 76% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -145 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Arizona, with pros grabbing the Snakes at plus money and causing the line to move in their favor (+130 to +100) despite being the unpopular side. The Diamondbacks have the superior offense, hitting .253 with 457 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .243 with 395 runs scored. Arizona is 5-2 in Pfaadt’s last seven starts. He has an ERA of 3.47 at home compared to 4.81 on the road. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .277. The Braves are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .239. Arizona is hitting .280 against lefties this season, 2nd-best in MLB.
