Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:05 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-200, 7.5)
The Pirates (28-41) just took two of three against the Marlins, winning the series finale 5-2 as -160 home favorites. On the other hand, the Cubs (41-27) just dropped two of three against the Phillies, losing the series finale 7-2 as -105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates hand the ball to lefty Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.24 ERA) and the Cubs turn to righty Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.54 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -190 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +160 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Cubs at Wrigley, driving Chicago up from -190 to -200.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way bet split indicating both Pro and Joe action in their favor.
Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 12-4 (75%) with an 8% ROI this season. Big home favorites -170 or more in the opening game of a new series are 56-18 (76%) with a 10% ROI.
Chicago is 19-5 (79%) with a 43% ROI off a loss this season, the best “bounce back” team in MLB. The Cubs are also 32-13 (71%) with a 15% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Chicago has the better offense, hitting .258 with 94 homers and 376 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .229 with 49 homers and 225 runs scored.
The Cubs are 20-11 at home. The Pirates are 9-22 on the road.
6:35 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-190, 8) at Baltimore Orioles
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers (44-25) took the opener 5-3, coming through as +110 road dogs. Then the Orioles (27-39) bounced back with a 10-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Tigers send out lefty Tarik Skubal (6-2, 2.16 ERA) and the Orioles were originally expected to counter with righty Dean Kremer (4-5, 4.98 ERA). However, Kremer was pushed back into a “bulk relief” role and now lefty Keegan Akin (1-0, 2.89 ERA) will serve as the opener.
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -180 road favorite and Baltimore a +150 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Tigers to earn a win and take the series with their ace on the bump, steaming Detroit up from -180 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of heavy sharp and public support in their favor.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 87-57 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 134-80 (63%) with a 3% ROI.
The Tigers are 17-7 (71%) with a 24% ROI off a loss this season, the fourth best “bounce back” team in MLB. Detroit is also 30-13 (70%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite, the third best chalk team in MLB.
Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Tigers also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team as well.
The Tigers are 9-2 in Skubal’s last 11 starts. Baltimore is only hitting .205 against lefties this season, tied for dead last in MLB against southpaws.
The Tigers are 21-16 on the road. The Orioles are 13-18 at home.
Detroit is 4-1 against Baltimore this season.
7:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-150, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Yankees (41-25) have taken the first two games of this three game series, winning the opener 10-2 as -200 road favorites and then winning again last night 6-3 as -130 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Yankees start righty Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) and the Royals go with fellow righty Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -135 road favorite and Kansas City a +115 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have pounced on the Bronx Bombers laying modest road chalk, steaming the Yankees up from -135 to -150.
At Circa, New York is taking in 57% of moneyline bets but a whopping 87% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing a Yankees sweep.
Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160 are 41-23 (64%) with an 8% ROI this season. The Yankees are 39-20 (66%) with a 6% ROI as a favorite this season, the fifth best chalk team in MLB. New York is 32-14 (70%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite against non-division opponents.
The Yankees have the better bats, hitting .261 with 108 homers and 365 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .253 with 46 homers and 231 runs scored. New York is also hitting .273 on the road (1st in MLB).
New York is 5-0 against Kansas City this season.
