Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The Cardinals (38-35) dominated the series opener 12-2, cruising as -135 road favorites. Then yesterday’s game was postponed due to rain, setting up a doubleheader for today.
In the first game of the doubleheader, the Cardinals start righty Erick Fedde (3-6, 3.65 ERA) and the White Sox counter with fellow righty Sean Burke (3-7, 4.71 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 road favorite and Chicago a +115 home dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Cardinals at a modest chalk price, steaming St. Louis up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 86% of moneyline bets and a hefty 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a lopsided “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the Cardinals to earn another road victory.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 78-41 (66%) with a 7% ROI this season. Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160 are 41-23 (64%) with an 8% ROI.
The Cardinals have a big edge at the plate, hitting .257 with 68 homers and 340 runs scored compared to the White Sox only hitting .222 with 55 homers and 250 runs scored. St. Louis is hitting .261 against righties (3rd best in MLB) while Chicago is only hitting .219 (dead last).
Fedde has a 2.70 ERA in three June starts, only giving up 5 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Burke has a 7.59 ERA in two June starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched.
2:20 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-130, 8.5)
The Cubs (45-28) won the series opener 5-3, taking care of business as -160 home favorites. Then yesterday’s game was postponed due to rain.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Brewers (39-35) turn to righty Freddy Peralta (6-4, 2.60 ERA) and the Cubs send out fellow righty Jameson Taillon (7-3, 4.38 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 home favorite and Milwaukee a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying short chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -115 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in only 38% of moneyline bets but 67% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Sweet spot home favorite -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 45-23 (66%) with a 14% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 78-41 (66%) with a 7% ROI.
The Cubs are 36-14 (72%) with a 16% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB.
Chicago has the more potent offense, hitting .254 with 99 homers and 390 runs scored compared to Milwaukee only hitting .237 with 66 homers and 319 runs scored.
Taillon has a 2.29 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched. Chicago is 5-0 in his last five starts. He is 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA at home this season.
Peralta is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA on the road compared to 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA at home.
Chicago is 24-12 at home this season. Milwaukee is 16-20 on the road.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-135, 8.5)
The Braves (33-39) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-4 in extra innings as -145 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-0 as -215 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Mets (45-29) hand the ball to righty Clay Holmes (7-3, 2.87 ERA) and the Braves turn to fellow righty Spencer Strider (1-5, 4.35 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a +105 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite a 50/50 moneyline bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Braves move up from -125 to -135.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move toward Atlanta we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the Braves to complete the sweep.
At Circa, Atlanta is only taking in 31% of moneyline bets but a whopping 61% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas getting down on the home chalk.
Home favorites with a line move in their favor who also made the playoffs the previous season are 156-74 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 74-37 (67%) with a 12% ROI. Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs are 45-23 (66%) with a 14% ROI.
The Braves are 21-15 at home. The Mets are 18-19 on the road.
