Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:07 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 8) at Toronto Blue Jays
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Phillies (37-24) won the opener 8-3, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. Then the Blue Jays (32-29) bounced back with a 2-1 win yesterday, cashing as a -110 home pick’em.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Jesus Luzardo (5-1, 3.58 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with righty Chris Bassitt (5-3, 3.80 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -120 road favorite and Toronto a +105 home dog.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Philadelphia. However, despite receiving 74% of moneyline wagers at DraftKings we’ve seen the Phillies fall from -120 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Blue Jays, as the line has moved in their favor (+105 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Toronto is receiving only 45% of moneyline bets but a whopping 82% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing Toronto out in Vegas.
Since May 1st, short dogs +120 or less have gone 93-83 (53%) with a 9% ROI and +15.5 units won due to the plus money payouts.
Toronto has played better as of late, hitting .270 with a 3.78 ERA over their last ten games compared to Philadelphia hitting .223 with a 5.19 ERA.
The Blue Jays are hitting .259 against lefties this season, 5th best in MLB. Toronto is also hitting .264 at home, 4th best in MLB.
The Blue Jays have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.36 (8th best) compared to 4.64 for the Phillies (6th worst).
Luzardo posted a 5.56 ERA in six May starts, allowing 21 earned runs in 34 innings pitched. He just got shelled for 12 earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched in his last start against the Brewers, losing 17-7.
Meanwhile, Bassitt is 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA at home compared to 1-3 with a 4.86 ERA on the road. Toronto is 5-1 in his last six starts overall.
3:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-120, 7.5)
The Padres (35-25) took the first two games of this four-game series, winning then opener 1-0 in extras as +150 road dogs then winning again in extras 3-2 as +135 road dogs. Then the Giants (34-28) bounced back with a 6-5 win yesterday, coming through as a -105 home dog.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Padres tap righty Dylan Cease (1-4, 4.66 ERA) and the Giants start lefty Robbie Ray (7-1, 2.43 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 home favorite and San Diego a +105 road dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Giants fall from -125 to -120. Some shops are even down to -115.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that respected money has jumped on the road dog Padres (+105 to +100).
San Diego has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
Short road dogs +120 or less are 54-43 (56%) with a 16% ROI since May 1st.
The Padres are 14-11 (56%) with a 24% ROI as a dog this season, the 4th best dog team in MLB.
6:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-150, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cubs (38-23) won the opener 8-3, cruising as -145 road favorites. Then the Nationals (29-32) clawed back with a 2-0 win yesterday, cashing as +120 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Cubs send out lefty Drew Pomeranz (2-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Nationals go with righty Jake Irvin (5-1, 3.93 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -140 road favorite and Washington a +120 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cubs laying modest chalk in a bounce-back spot, driving Chicago up from -140 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in more than 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of Chicago earning a win and taking the series.
Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160, like the Cubs here, are 38-21 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season. Road favorites after getting shut out are 17-7 (71%) with a 23% ROI.
Chicago is the second best “bounce back” team in MLB, going 16-4 (80%) with a 45% ROI following a loss this season.
The Cubs have the more explosive offense, hitting .260 with 81 homers and 249 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .243 with 61 homers and 270 runs scored. Chicago is hitting .274 on the road (best in MLB) and .262 against righties (3rd best).
Chicago also has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.56 compared to 5.87 for Washington, second worst in MLB.
