Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 6 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-175, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Rays (19-23) won the opener 11-9, cashing as +115 road dogs. Then the Blue Jays (21-21) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -160 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rays hand the ball to righty Zack Littell (2-5, 4.40 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with fellow righty Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.97 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -165 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Blue Jays, steaming Toronto up from -165 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Blue Jays are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites, like the Blue Jays here, are 260-152 (63%) with a 3% ROI this season. Home favorites -150 or more are 134-59 (69%) with a 4% ROI.
Toronto has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Blue Jays have the hotter bats, hitting .289 over their last ten games compared to the Rays only hitting .238.
The Blue Jays are hitting .254 at home (15th in MLB). The Rays are hitting .233 on the road (18th).
Gausman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA at home this season compared to 1-3 with a 5.27 ERA on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-130, 7)
The Astros (22-20) just took two of three against the Royals, winning the series finale 4-3 as -125 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rangers (23-21) just swept the Rockies, winning 8-3 yesterday as -240 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros turn to righty Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA) and the Rangers go with fellow righty Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.72 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -120 home favorite and Houston a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rangers laying short chalk at home, steaming Texas up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, the Rangers are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Rangers out in Vegas.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 102-52 (66%) with a 5% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the favorite is 30-18 (63%) with a 3% ROI.
Texas has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rangers are 15-8 at home this season. The Astros are 7-11 on the road.
deGrom is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA at home compared to 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA on the road.
10:10 p.m. ET: Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Athletics (22-21) took the opener 11-1, cruising as +170 road dogs. Then the Dodgers (28-15) roared back with a 9-3 win yesterday, taking care of business as -300 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series finale, the Athletics tap righty Oswaldo Bido (2-3, 4.75 ERA) and the Dodgers turn to fellow righty Matt Sauer (1-0, 1.54 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -190 home favorite and the Athletics a +165 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Dodgers to earn a victory and take the series, driving Los Angeles up from -190 to -200.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Dodgers are raking in more than 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of Los Angeles at home.
Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 41-19 (68%) with a 12% ROI this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 70-19 (79%) with a 10% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 156-74 (68%) with a 9% ROI.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .267 with 68 homers and 238 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .261 with 57 homers and 194 runs scored.
Los Angeles is also pitching better as of late, sporting a 4.76 team ERA over their last ten games compared to 6.49 for the Athletics. The Dodgers have the better bullpen as well (3.82 ERA vs 5.24).
Bido has a 6.10 ERA in two May starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched.
