Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8)
The Giants (12-4) took last night’s series opener 10-4, cruising as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Giants hand the ball to righty Justin Verlander (0-0, 6.92 ERA) and the Phillies (9-7) counter with lefty Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.50 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +125 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies to bounce back with a win, steaming Philadelphia up from -145 to -165. At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public.
Home favorites are 105-55 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss 41-18 (70%) with a 17% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 50-21 (70%) with a 14% ROI.
The Phillies have additional betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8) and a non-division favorite, with the fewer amount of expected runs scored and lack of familiarity more likely to benefit the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Philadelphia is hitting .258 at home this season (12th). San Francisco is hitting .209 on the road (20th). The Giants are only hitting .195 against lefties, 25th in MLB.
Verlander has an ERA of 9.00 across two starts in April, allowing 8 earned runs in 8 innings pitched. On the other hand, Luzardo has allowed two earned runs or less in all three starts this season.
7:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles (-155, 9)
This is the opening game of a three-game series. The Guardians (8-7) just took two of three against the Royals but failed to complete the sweep, losing Sunday’s series finale 4-2 as +120 home dogs. On the other hand, the Orioles (6-9) just split a two-game series against the Jays, losing the series finale 7-6 in extra innings on Sunday as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Guardians send out lefty Logan Allen (0-1, 3.60 ERA) and the Orioles turn to righty Charlie Morton (0-3, 8.78 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -130 home favorite and Cleveland a +115 road dog. Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the chalk with the Birds, steaming the Orioles up from -130 to -155.
At Circa, Baltimore is taking in 53% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of pro money backing the Orioles at home.
Home favorites are 105-55 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss 41-18 (70%) with a 17% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite in 23-4 (85%) with a 41% ROI.
The Orioles have the better bats, hitting .235 with 66 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .222 with 59 runs scored.
Baltimore has additional value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win.
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angels Angels at Texas Rangers (-125, 8.5)
This is the opening game of a three-game series. The Angels (9-6) just dropped two of three against the Astros, falling 7-3 in Sunday’s series finale as +140 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rangers (9-7) just got swept by the Mariners, losing 3-1 on Sunday as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Angels go with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-2, 5.00 ERA) and the Rangers tap righty Tyler Mahle (2-0, 1.32 ERA). Originally, it was thought lefty Patrick Corbin (0-0, 6.75 ERA) would start for Texas but then the Rangers changed to Mahle.
This line opened with Texas listed as a short -115 home favorite and Los Angeles a -105 road dog. Sharps have jumped on Texas once the Mahle for Corbin switch took place, steaming the Rangers up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, indicating public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Home favorites are 105-55 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss 41-18 (70%) with a 17% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 50-21 (70%) with a 14% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite in 23-4 (85%) with a 41% ROI.
Kikuchi has made three starts this season (all on the road) and the Angels have gone 0-3. The lefty has allowed three earned runs or more in all three starts. On the other hand, Mahle has a 0.75 ERA in two April starts, allowing just one run in 12 innings pitched.
