Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers (-120, 7.5)
The Tigers (14-9) won last night’s Interleague series opener 6-4, taking care of business as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres (16-7) hand the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (3-1, 1.57 ERA) and the Tigers turn to fellow righty Jack Flaherty (1-1, 2.53 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a short -110 home favorite and San Diego a +100 road dog.
The public is expecting the Padres to bounce back with a win. However, despite 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings taking San Diego we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Detroit -110 to -120. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Tigers at home.
At Circa, the Tigers are receiving only 23% of moneyline bets but a whopping 69% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger, wiseguy wagers backing Detroit out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Tigers here, are 151-73 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 27-11 (71%) with a 19% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 77-27 (74%) with a 19% ROI.
Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Tigers are 9-2 at home this season. The Padres are 4-6 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks (-165, 9)
This is the first game of a three-game Interleague series.
The Rays (9-13) just dropped three of four against the Yankees, losing the series finale 4-0 as +145 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (13-9) just lost two of three against the Cubs but avoided the sweep by winning the series finale 3-2 in extra innings as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays send out righty Zack Littell (0-4, 5.48 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Brandon Pfaadt (3-1, 3.04 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -150 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +135 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Snakes at home, steaming Arizona up from -150 to -165. Some shops are even inching toward -170.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Diamondbacks are taking in 81% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Snakes in the desert.
Home favorites are 151-73 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 148-77 (66%) with a 9% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 42-15 (74%) with a 19% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 49-25 (66%) with a 12% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 28-6 (82%) with a 37% ROI.
The Diamondbacks have the more explosive bats, hitting 30 homers and scoring 120 runs compared to the Rays only hitting 21 homers and scoring 94 runs. Arizona is hitting .282 at home this season, 3rd-best in MLB.
Arizona is 6-4 at home this season. Tampa Bay is 0-3 on the road.
9:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-135, 7.5)
The Giants (15-8) took last night’s series opener 5-2, cashing as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers (12-11) tap lefty Jose Quintana (2-0, 0.71 ERA) and the Giants rebuttal with righty Jordan Hicks (1-2, 6.04 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 home favorite and Milwaukee a +115 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -125 to -135. Shops shops are even moving toward -140.
At Circa, the Giants are taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Home favorites are 151-73 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 148-77 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 42-15 (74%) with a 19% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 77-27 (74%) with a 19% ROI.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have fishy buy-low value as a favorite with a high ERA starting pitcher (and line movement in their direction) against a sell-high underdog with a low ERA starting pitcher.
San Francisco is 5-2 at home this season. Milwaukee is 3-7 on the road.
The Giants have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.10 (2nd best) compared to 5.22 for the Brewers (4th worst).
