Today we have a massive slate of MLB action on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs (-155, 8)
The Cubs (8-5) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-0, cruising as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers (8-3) turn to lefty Patrick Corbin, who is making his 2025 debut, while the Cubs tap righty Jameson Taillon (1-1, 6.97 ERA). Corbin went 6-13 with a 5.62 ERA last season with the Nationals.
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and Texas a +130 road dog. Wiseguys seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the wood with the Cubs, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -155. Some shops are even approaching -160.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving roughly two-thirds of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from both sharps and the betting public.
Home favorites, like the Cubs here, are 69-32 (68%) with a 14% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more are 25-4 (86%) with a 42% ROI this season.
Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 35-16 (69%) with a 14% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 33-12 (73%) with a 24% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 28-6 (82%) with a 39% ROI this season.
Fading Corbin has been a “wiseguy” system for years, resulting in an 89-47 (65%) record with a 9% ROI since 2020. The Cubs are also hitting .248 against lefties this season, 12th-best in MLB.
Chicago has a big edge at the plate overall, hitting .251 with 84 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .184 with only 33 runs scored.
8:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-160, 9.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Brewers (5-5) just took three of four against the Reds, winning Sunday’s series finale 8-2 as -145 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rockies (2-7) just dropped two of three against the Athletics but avoided the sweep with a 12-5 win in Sunday’s series finale, cashing as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers start righty Freddy Peralta (0-1, 2.08 ERA) and the Rockies counter with lefty Kyle Freeland (0-1, 2.13 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 road favorite and Colorado a +135 home dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the moderately expensive chalk and have steamed the Brewers up from -150 to -160.
At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving 67% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the road favorite is 5-1 (83%) with a 45% ROI this season and 221-140 (61%) with a 5% ROI since 2020.
Milwaukee has additional correlative betting value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
9:45 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (-130, 7.5)
The Reds (4-7) took last night’s series opener 2-0, cashing as +145 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Reds hand the ball to lefty Nick Lodolo (1-1, 1.42 ERA) and the Giants (8-2) counter with righty Landen Roupp (0-0, 6.75 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -120 home favorite and Cincinnati a +105 road dog. Sharps have jumped on the Giants to bounce back at home, steaming San Francisco up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 44% of moneyline bets and 56% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites, like the Giants here, are 69-32 (68%) with a 14% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 22-11 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season. Short non-division favorites -135 or less are 35-26 (57%) with a 4% ROI this season and 1,684-1,336 (56%) with a 3% ROI since 2019.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have the better bats (.228 with 49 runs scored vs .207 with 41 runs scored), pitching staff (team ERA 2.77 vs 3.09) and bullpen ERA (2.13 vs 3.82).
