Today the early portion of our week rolls on with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-125, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Marlins (62-69) took last night’s series opener 2-1, coming through as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Braves (59-72) hand the ball to righty Hurston Waldrep (4-0, 0.73 ERA) and the Marlins go with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (7-11, 6.04 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -115 road favorite and Miami a -105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Braves to bounce back with a win, steaming Atlanta up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, Atlanta is receiving 59% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. At Circa, the Braves are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way support in their favor.
Atlanta has betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Braves have the more explosive offense, hitting 145 homers and scoring 571 runs compared to the Marlins hitting 128 homers and scoring 564 runs.
Waldrep has allowed 1 earned run or less in all four starts this season, with the Braves going a perfect 4-0.
Meanwhile, Alcantara has posted a 4.68 ERA in four August starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. He faced the Braves three starts ago and allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings pitched, losing 8-6.
The Braves are 6-4 over their last ten games and hitting .262. The Marlins are 4-6 over their last ten games and hitting .218.
7:45 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-130, 8)
The Cardinals (65-67) won last night’s series opener 7-6, taking care of business as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates (57-75) send out righty Mitch Keller (5-12, 4.34 ERA) and the Cardinals tap fellow righty Andre Pallante (6-11, 5.17 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -125 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Cardinals laying short chalk at home, driving St. Louis up from -125 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home team.
The Cardinals have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
St. Louis has the better bats, hitting .249 with 125 homers and 580 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .234 with 96 homers and 473 runs scored.
The Cardinals are 36-30 at home. The Pirates are 18-45 on the road, the 2nd worst road record in MLB.
9:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-145, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
The Cubs (76-55) just swept the Angels, winning the series finale 4-3 as -140 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (63-68) just took two of three against the Brewers, winning the series finale 4-3 as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs send out lefty Matthew Boyd (12-6, 2.61 ERA) and the Giants go with righty Justin Verlander (1-0, 4.64 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 road favorite and San Francisco a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying modest chalk, steaming Chicago up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Cubs also have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team expected to win as well.
The Cubs have the edge at the plate, hitting .249 with 178 homers and 648 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .231 with 128 homers and 530 runs scored.
Boyd has posted a 3.33 ERA in four August starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Verlander has posted a 5.06 ERA in four August starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 21.1 innings pitched. San Francisco is 5-17 in his 22 starts this season.
The Giants are hitting just .209 against lefties this season, dead last in MLB.
