Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 8.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers (51-40) dominated last night’s series opener 9-1, cruising as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers (56-36) hand the ball to lefty Clayton Kershaw (4-0, 3.43 ERA) and the Brewers counter with righty Jacob Misiorowski (3-1, 3.20 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 road favorite and Milwaukee a -105 home dog.
Sharps are banking on the Dodgers to bounce back with a win, steaming Los Angeles up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 33% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 21-13 (62%) with a 3% ROI this season. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 117-77 (60%) with a 4% ROI. Favorites off a loss priced -120 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 54-31 (64%) with a 12% ROI.
The Dodgers are 21-12 (64%) with a 3% ROI off a loss this season. When priced as a short favorite -150 or less, Los Angeles is 11-6 (65%) with a 13% ROI this season and 94-49 (66%) with a 16% ROI since 2022.
The Dodgers have the better offense, hitting .260 with 141 homers and 501 runs scored compared to the Brewers hitting .247 with 88 homers and 429 runs scored.
Los Angeles is hitting .260 against righties, tied for 3rd best in MLB.
Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-195, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Blue Jays (53-38) won last night’s series opener 8-4, taking care of business as -170 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays send out righty Chris Bassitt (8-4, 4.32 ERA) and the White Sox turn to fellow righty Aaron Civale (1-5, 4.60 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -170 road favorite and Chicago a +150 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Blue Jays, steaming Toronto up from -170 to -195.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are taking in 92% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy Pro and Joe “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Big road favorites -185 or more with at least 5-cents of steam in their favor are 30-9 (77%) with a 11% ROI this season. The Blue Jays are 25-14 (64%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite this season, the 5th best chalk team in MLB. Toronto is 19-9 (68%) with a 13% ROI as a favorite against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
The Blue Jays have the far superior offense, hitting .258 with 97 homers and 420 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .222 with 70 homers and 315 runs scored.
Toronto is hitting .256 against righties (7th best in MLB) and .244 on the road (13th). On the other hand, Chicago is hitting .219 against righties (30th) and .226 at home (28th).
The Blue Jays also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.62 compared to 4.02 for the White Sox.
Toronto is 9-1 over their last ten games, hitting .260. Chicago is 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .238.
9:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-130, 7.5)
The Diamondbacks (45-46) stole last night’s series opener 6-3, cashing as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks start righty Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.55 ERA) and the Padres (48-42) tap fellow righty Nick Pivetta (9-2, 3.25 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 home favorite and Arizona a +100 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Padres laying short chalk in a bounce back spot, steaming San Diego up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 66% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Diego is taking in 90% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the big, respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the home team.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 164-81 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season. Game 2 home favorites who lost the series opener, made the playoffs the previous season and are receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 21-10 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
The Padres are 23-12 (66%) with an 8% ROI as a home favorite, the 9th best home favorite in MLB. San Diego is 13-5 (72%) with a 20% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction. The Padres are 23-18 (56%) with a 13% ROI off a loss, the 5th most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Pivetta is 6-0 with a 2.55 ERA at home this season.
