Today we have a loaded 14-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:35 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles (-170, 9)
The Cubs (42-49) just took two of three against the Angels, winning Sunday’s series finale 5-0 as -155 home favorites. Similarly, the Orioles (57-33) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning Sunday’s series finale 6-3 as -180 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Cubs start righty Jameson Taillon (5-4, 2.99 ERA) and the Orioles rebuttal with fellow righty Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.93 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -145 home favorite and Chicago a +125 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Baltimore at home, driving the Orioles up from -145 to -170. Baltimore is receiving 89% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. The Orioles have value as an Interleague favorite off a win, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is carrying momentum. Baltimore also matches the “both had the day off, take the favorite” system, which is cashing at roughly a 60% clip this season. The Orioles have the superior offense, hitting .256 with 146 homers and 464 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting only .229 with 87 homers and 374 runs scored. Baltimore is hitting .252 against righties this season (8th best in MLB). Chicago is hitting .227 against righties (24th). The Cubs are 17-28 on the road. The Orioles are 29-17 at home. Chicago is -24 in run differential. Baltimore is +106 in run differential.
7:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox (-200, 10.5)
The Athletics (34-58) just dropped two of three against the Orioles, losing Sunday’s series finale 6-3 as +150 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (49-40) just took two of three against the Yankees, winning Sunday’s series finale 3-0 as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics hand the ball to righty Joey Estes (3-3, 4.39 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with righty Brayan Bello (8-5, 5.19 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -180 home favorite and Oakland a +165 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Red Sox, steaming Boston up from -180 to -200. The Red Sox are receiving 91% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Boston has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expecting to win. Boston also matches the “both had the day off, take the favorite” system, which is cashing at roughly a 60% clip this season. The Red Sox have a big edge at the plate, hitting .252 with 414 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .224 with 347 runs scored. Estes has an ERA of 7.00 on the road compared to 1.91 at home. Oakland is 12-33 on the road this season, tied for the 2nd-worst road record in MLB. The Athletics are -89 in run differential. The Red Sox are +36 in run differential.
9:38 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-170, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Rangers (43-48) won last night’s series opener 9-4, taking care of business as -155 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers go with righty Max Scherzer (1-2, 2.70 ERA) and the Angels (37-53) turn to fellow righty Roansy Contreras (1-1, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -160 road favorite and Los Angeles a +145 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with Texas, steaming the Rangers up from -160 to -170. Texas is receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy public and wiseguy support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Rangers have the better offense, hitting .243 with 398 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .235 with 363 runs scored. Texas has betting system value as a road favorite with a 10-cent steam move or more, which is cashing at roughly a 62% clip this season. Texas also matches the betting system “two sub .500 teams, take the favorite,” which is cashing at roughly a 60% clip this season. The Rangers are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .288 with a 2.86 ERA. The Angels are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .223 with a 4.81 ERA. Los Angeles is just 18-27 at home, the 3rd-worst home record in MLB. The Rangers are +13 in run differential. The Angels are -83 in run differential.
