Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers (-200, 8)
The Pirates (29-44) just dropped three of four against the Cubs, losing the series finale 3-2 in extra innings as +125 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers (46-27) just lost two of three against the Reds, falling 8-4 in the series finale as -185 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Pirates trot out lefty Bailey Falter (5-3, 3.36 ERA) and the Tigers go with righty Casey Mize (6-2, 2.95 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -190 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +170 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Tigers, steaming Detroit up from -190 to -200. Some shops are even creeping up toward -210.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Detroit is taking in 92% of moneyline bets and a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of Detroit to earn a series opening win at home.
Big home favorites -200 or more who made the playoffs the previous season are 72-19 (79%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites with a line move in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 151-73 (67%) with a 7% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 72-39 (65%) with a 6% ROI.
Detroit is 18-7 (72%) with a 25% ROI off a loss this season, the third best “bounce back” team in MLB. The Tigers are 29-12 (71%) with a 23% ROI against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
Detroit has correlative betting value a bigger favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Tigers have a big edge at the plate, hitting .251 with 85 homers and 351 runs score compared to the Pirates only hitting .225 with 50 homers and 232 runs scored. Detroit is hitting .272 against lefties this season, the best in MLB against southpaws.
Mize is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA at home this season.
Detroit is 24-11 at home. Pittsburgh is 10-25 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-160, 9)
The Brewers (39-34) just took three of four against the Cardinals, winning the series finale 3-2 as -140 home favorites. Similarly, the Cubs (44-28) just took three of four against the Pirates, winning the series finale 3-2 in extra innings as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Chad Patrick (3-6, 3.25 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Ben Brown (3-5, 5.71 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and Milwaukee a +125 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying modest chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorites is 37-17 (69%) with a 12% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 72-39 (65%) with a 6% ROI.
The Cubs are 35-14 (71%) with a 15% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .254 with 97 homers and 385 runs scored compared to Milwaukee hitting .236 with only 65 homers and 316 runs scored. The Cubs are hitting .256 against righties (7th) while the Brewers are hitting .234 (24th).
The Cubs also have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.16 (5th best in MLB) compared to 4.28 for the Brewers.
The Cubs are 23-12 at home. The Brewers are 16-19 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (-135, 8.5)
The Royals (34-38) just got swept by the Athletics, dropping the series finale 3-2 as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rangers (36-36) just swept the White Sox, winning the series finale 2-1 as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals send out righty Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.18 ERA) and the Rangers turn to fellow righty Jack Leiter (4-3, 3.88 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -120 home favorite and Kansas City a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rangers laying short chalk at home, steaming Texas up from -120 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are taking in roughly two-thirds of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support from wiseguys and the betting public alike.
Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing a team who made the playoffs the previous season are 44-23 (66%) with a 13% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their favor are 105-55 (66%) with a 4% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 72-39 (65%) with a 6% ROI.
The Rangers are 25-12 (68%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite, the third best chalk team in MLB. Texas is 19-6 (76%) with a 23% ROI as a home favorite, the second best home favorite in MLB.
The Rangers have the more explosive bats, hitting 76 homers and scoring 265 runs compared to the Royals only hitting 46 homers and scoring 237 runs.
Leiter is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA at home compared to 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Lugo is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA on the road compared to 2-3 with a 2.72 ERA at home.
Texas is 23-13 at home. Kansas City if 15-19 on the road.
