Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-155, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
The Cubs (37-22) just took two of three against the Reds, winning the series finale 7-3 as -160 home favorites. Similarly, the Nationals (28-31) just took two of three against the Diamondbacks but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 3-1 as +190 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Cade Horton (2-0, 3.98 ERA) and the Nationals counter with fellow righty Trevor Williams (3-5, 5.69 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 road favorite and Washington a +125 home dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Cubs, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 55% of moneyline bets but a whopping 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Rested favorites coming off a day off are 86-48 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 61-32 (66%) with a 6% ROI. Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160 are 36-20 (64%) with an 8% ROI.
Chicago has the better offense, hitting .261 with 80 homers and 341 runs scored compared to Washington hitting .244 with 60 homers and 265 runs scored.
Chicago is 4-0 in Horton’s four starts this season. Meanwhile, Williams posted a 5.68 ERA in five May starts, giving up 16 earned runs in 25.1 innings pitched. He has a 6.48 ERA at home compared to 5.04 on the road.
The Cubs also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.63 compared to 5.94 for the Nationals, third worst in MLB.
Chicago has gone 18-8 (69%) with a 10% ROI against teams with a below .500 record.
The Cubs are 17-11 on the road. The Nationals are 13-14 at home.
7:35 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-145, 8)
The Rangers (29-31) just took two of three against the Cardinals, winning the series finale 8-1 as -165 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (30-29) just dropped two of three against the Astros, losing the series finale 1-0 as +140 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers send out righty Tyler Mahle (5-2, 1.64 ERA) and the Rays turn to fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (4-4, 2.33 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -135 home favorite and Texas a +120 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Rays laying modest chalk at home, steaming Tampa Bay up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 59% of moneyline bets but 73% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in favor of the home team.
Rested favorites coming off a day off are 86-48 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 61-32 (66%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites -135 or more in the opening game of a new series are 80-35 (70%) with a 6% ROI.
Tampa Bay has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the better bats, hitting .246 with 256 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .233 with 204 runs scored. The Rays are hitting .257 against righties (4th best in MLB) while the Rangers are only hitting .226 (28th).
Mahle has a 3.27 ERA on the road compared to 0.82 at home. Meanwhile, Rasmussen posted a 1.98 ERA in five May starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 27.1 innings pitched.
The Rangers are 9-18 on the road, the fourth worst road record in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-170, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Tigers (40-21) dominated last night’s series opener 13-1, cruising as -250 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers are expected to start righty Sawyer Gipson-Long, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery and making his first start since 2023. Gipson-Long posted a 2.20 ERA in five minor league rehab starts coming into today’s debut. Meanwhile, the White Sox (18-42) go with righty Shane Smith (1-3, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -150 road favorite and Chicago a +130 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand, steaming the Tigers up from -150 to -170.
At DraftKings, Detroit is receiving 92% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Tigers are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp one-way “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites -170 or more with line movement in their direction are 31-13 (71%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Tigers have cleaned up against “bad” team this season, going 25-7 (78%) with a 36% ROI against teams who missed the playoffs the previous year.
Detroit has the far better offense, hitting .251 with 73 homers and 309 runs scored compared to Chicago only hitting .220 with 47 homers and 202 runs scored. The Tigers are hitting .255 on the road (4th best in MLB) while the White Sox are only hitting .219 at home (28th).
Detroit also has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.19 (4th) compared to 4.63 for the White Sox (7th worst).
The Tigers are 19-13 on the road. The White Sox are 12-16 at home.
Detroit is 4-0 against Chicago this season.
