Today we have a loaded MLB slate on tap with 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-175, 8.5)
The Orioles (13-20) just dropped two of three against the Royals, losing the series finale 11-6 as -140 home favorites. On the other hand, the Twins (15-20) just took two of three against the Red Sox, winning the series finale 5-4 as +165 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles hand the ball to lefty Cade Povich (1-2, 5.16 ERA) and the Twins counter with righty Pablo Lopez (2-2, 2.25 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -150 home favorite and Baltimore a +130 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Twins, steaming Minnesota up from -150 to -175.
At Circa, Minnesota is receiving 60% of moneyline bets and a whopping 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home chalk.
Home favorites are 218-123 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 61-29 (68%) with a 9% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 38-15 (72%) with a 16% ROI. Home favorites -150 or more are 106-47 (69%) with a 3% ROI.
Minnesota has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.75 compared to 5.08 for Baltimore (3rd worst in MLB).
The Twins are hitting .258 at home this season (9th). The Orioles are only hitting .215 on the road (25th).
Lopez posted a 1.96 ERA in four April starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 23 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Povich posted a 4.97 ERA in five April starts, giving up 14 earned runs in 25.1 innings pitched.
The Twins are 9-6 at home this season. The Orioles are 5-11 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-155, 8)
The Cubs (22-14) won last night’s series opener 9-2, taking care of business as -175 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (22-14) start righty Justin Verlander (0-2, 4.38 ERA) and the Cubs go with fellow righty Colin Rea (2-0, 1.46 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +125 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Cubs at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in 68% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Chicago.
Home favorites with a winning record are 120-60 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 87-38 (70%) with an 11% ROI. Home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 61-29 (68%) with a 9% ROI. When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 45-28 (62%) with a 4% ROI.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .262 with 54 homers and 217 runs scored compared to San Francisco only hitting .231 with 38 homers and 166 runs scored.
The Cubs are hitting .255 against righties (7th) while the Giants are hitting .235 (24th).
Chicago has won six straight starts made by Rea. He has a 0.77 ERA in two home starts overall.
8:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-175, 9.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Tigers (22-13) just took three of four against the Angels, winning the series finale 13-1 as -175 road favorites. Conversely, the Rockies (6-28) just got swept by the Giants, falling 9-3 in the series finale as +320 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Tigers send out righty Jackson Jobe (2-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Rockies turn to fellow righty Chase Dollander (2-3, 6.48 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -165 road favorite and Colorado a +140 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive road chalk and steamed the Tigers up from -165 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 93% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, a massive one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous year are 123-60 (67%) with an 8% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 38-15 (72%) with a 16% ROI.
Detroit has additional value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Tigers have the far better offense, hitting .255 with 47 homers and 179 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting only .209 with 27 homers and 106 runs scored.
Detroit has the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.57 (3rd best) compared to 3.88 for Colorado.
The Tigers are hitting .251 on the road (7th) while the Rockies are only hitting .234 at home (23rd).
Detroit is hitting .252 against righties (8th) while the Rockies are only hitting .215 (30th).
Detroit is 5-0 in Jobe’s five starts this season. Dollander has a 6.75 ERA at home in three starts.
