Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 7.5)
These National League foes have split the first two games of this four-game series. The Giants (12-5) took the opener 10-4, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Phillies (10-7) bounced back with a 6-4 win last night, taking care of business as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants hand the ball to lefty Robbie Ray (3-0, 2.93 ERA) and the Phillies counter with righty Aaron Nola (0-3, 5.51 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +115 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies laying modest chalk at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are taking in 72% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Phillies are receiving 44% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy out in Vegas.
Home favorites are 112-58 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 54-21 (72%) with a 16% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with 10-cents of steam or more in their direction are 28-9 (76%) with a 23% ROI.
Philadelphia has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Phillies are hitting .254 against lefties this season (7th best in MLB) and .266 at home (9th). The Giants are hitting .212 on the road (20th) and .233 against righties (20th).
7:40 p.m. ET: Athletics (-155, 7.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Athletics (7-10) took last night’s series opener 12-3, cruising as -160 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics send out righty Osvaldo Bido (1-1, 3.00 ERA) and the White Sox (4-12) rebuttal with fellow righty Jonathan Cannon (0-2, 5.79 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -150 road favorite and the White Sox a +135 home dog. Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down on the Athletics, driving the A’s up from -150 to -155. Some shops are even touching -160.
At DraftKings, the Athletics are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Athletics are taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the A’s.
Favorites with line movement in their direction are 107-62 (63%) with a 5% ROI this season. Favorites -150 or more are 70-33 (68%) with a 4% ROI. Favorites with a below .500 record playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 45-26 (63%) with a 6% ROI.
The Athletics have value as a non-division favorite and a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit the “better” team who is expected to win.
The A’s have a big edge at the plate, hitting .248 with 23 homers and 77 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting only .200 with 11 homers and 53 runs scored.
The Athletics are hitting .240 against righties (14th) while the White Sox are hitting .202 (29th). The A’s are also hitting .254 on the road (5th) while the White Sox are hitting .209 at home (29th).
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (-135, 9.5) at Texas Rangers
The Rangers (10-7) won last night’s series opener 4-0, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Angels (9-7) go with righty Jose Soriano (2-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Rangers tap lefty Patrick Corbin (0-0, 6.75 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 road favorite and Texas a -105 home dog. Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the chalk with the Angels, steaming Los Angeles up from -115 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Angels are receiving 59% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Angels are taking in 58% of moneyline bets and 66% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split in favor of Los Angeles.
Favorites off a loss are 70-34 (67%) with a 14% ROI this season. Fading Corbin is also a top wiseguy betting system, resulting in a 90-47 (66%) record with a 9% ROI since 2020.
The Angels have the better bats, hitting .233 with 30 homers and 75 runs scored compared to the Rangers hitting .212 with only 18 homers and 55 runs scored. Texas is only hitting .206 against righties this season, ranking 27th in MLB.
