Today we have a loaded slate on MLB action on tap with 16-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros (-120, 8)
The Astros (16-13) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-5 as -125 home favorites and winning again yesterday 6-4 as -120 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Jackson Jobe (2-0, 2.70 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow righty AJ Blubaugh, who is making his MLB debut. Blubaugh has gone 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA for AAA Sugar Land this season.
This line opened with Houston listed as a -115 home favorite and Detroit a +100 road dog.
The public is banking on the Tigers to avoid the sweep. However, despite 69% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Detroit, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Houston -115 to -120. Some shops are even up to -125. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Astros.
At Circa, Houston is only receiving 34% of moneyline bets but a whopping 79% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers taking the unpopular home chalk out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Astros here, are 195-98 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 78-29 (73%) with an 18% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 144-79 (65%) with a 5% ROI. When both teams are above .500, the favorite is 41-22 (65%) with a 10% ROI.
Houston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Astros are 11-6 at home this season. The Tigers are 5-9 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-150, 7)
The Padres (18-11) won last night’s series opener 7-4, taking care of business as +105 home dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Giants (19-11) send out righty Landen Roupp (2-1, 4.56 ERA) and the Padres go with fellow righty Michael King (3-1, 2.18 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Padres to post another victory at Petco Park, steaming San Diego up from -130 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Padres at home.
Home favorites, like the Padres here, are 195-98 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 78-29 (73%) with an 18% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 144-79 (65%) with a 5% ROI. When both teams are above .500, the favorite is 41-22 (65%) with a 10% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 193-104 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 128-51 (72%) with a 9% ROI.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
King has a 1.48 ERA in five April starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 30.1 innings pitched. He has a 1.25 ERA in four home starts. On the other hand, Roupp has a 5.06 ERA in three road starts.
The Padres are hitting .263 at home this season, 8th best in MLB. The Giants are only hitting .212 on the road, ranking 25th.
6:35 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Orioles (11-18) took the opener 4-3, cashing as +115 home dogs. Then the Yankees (18-12) bounced back with a 15-3 win yesterday, cruising as -175 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Yankees tap righty Carlos Carrasco (2-1, 5.26 ERA) and the Orioles rebuttal with lefty Cade Povich (1-2, 5.04 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -120 road favorite and Baltimore a +105 home dog.
The public is pounding the Yankees to earn a series win. However, despite 84% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing New York, we’ve actually seen this line steam in favor of the Orioles +105 to -115. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Baltimore.
At Circa, the Orioles are receiving only 18% of moneyline bets but 54% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Birds at Camden Yards out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Orioles here, are 195-98 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 118-64 (65%) with a 9% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 193-104 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 144-79 (65%) with a 5% ROI.
Baltimore has fishy buy-low value as an unpopular home favorite with a losing record against a sell-high trendy road dog with a winning record.
