Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Top MLB Resources:
2:20 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs (-165, 7.5)
The Cubs (9-5) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 7-0 as -130 home favorites and then winning again last night 10-6 as -160 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers (8-4) trot out righty Tyler Mahle (1-0, 1.35 ERA) and the Cubs go with lefty Shota Imanaga (2-0, 0.98 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -150 home favorite and Texas a +135 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Cubs to complete the sweep, steaming Chicago up from -150 to -165.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars, indicating public indecision but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Chicago matches several betting systems. Home favorites are 75-37 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 27-4 (87%) with a 43% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 39-18 (68%) with a 14% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 34-12 (74%) with a 25% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites off a win are 29-8 (78%) with a 32% ROI this season.
The Cubs have additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .258 with 94 runs scored compared to Texas hitting just .198 with 39 runs scored. The Rangers are only hitting .169 on the road this season (29th) and .216 against lefties (18th).
3:35 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Athletics (-120, 10)
These Interleague opponents have split the first two games of this three-game series, with the Padres (9-3) taking the opener 5-4 as -155 road favorites and then the Athletics (5-7) bouncing back with a 10-4 win yesterday as +110 home dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Padres send out righty Randy Vasquez (0-1, 1.69 ERA) and the Athletics (5-7) counter with fellow righty Osvaldo Bido (1-0, 2.70 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -125 road favorite and the Athletics a +115 home dog. The public is all over the Padres laying short chalk. However, despite 76% of moneyline bets backing the Padres at DraftKings we’ve seen this line completely flip to Athletics -125. This indicates a sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line move on the Athletics, with pro money pouring in on the home team.
Home favorites, like the Athletics here, are 75-37 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 10-cents or more are 27-4 (87%) with a 43% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 34-12 (74%) with a 25% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 29-8 (78%) with a 32% ROI this season.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 9.5 to 10. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 51% of bets and 78% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a higher scoring game.
The over is a perfect 5-0 at the Athletics home stadium this season.
7:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-135, 8.5)
The Braves (2-8) took last night’s series opener 7-5, cashing as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (7-3) hand the ball to righty Taijuan Walker (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Braves turn to fellow righty Grant Holmes (0-1, 7.20 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -120 home favorite and Philadelphia a +110 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 61% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are taking the plus money with the Phillies.
However, despite this lopsided ticket split we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Atlanta -120 to -135, with some shops as high as -140. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Atlanta, with pros fading the trendy dog Phillies and instead backing the unpopular home chalk Braves.
At Circa, the Braves are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers out in Vegas playing Atlanta.
Home favorites, like the Braves here, are 75-37 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 39-18 (68%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Atlanta also has fishy buy-low value as a favorite with a losing record and a starting pitcher with a high ERA against a sell-high underdog with a winning record and a starting pitcher with a low ERA.
