Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 8)
The Guardians (62-56) won last night’s Interleague series opener 4-3, taking care of business as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Marlins (57-62) hand the ball to righty Eury Perez (4-3, 3.25 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Gavin Williams (7-4, 3.17 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -125 home favorite and Miami a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 67% of monyeline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Short home favorites -140 or less off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 53-32 (62%) with a 12% ROI since July 1st.
The Guardians are 33-19 (64%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite, the 3rd best chalk team in MLB. Cleveland is 27-14 (66%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite against sub .500 teams.
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Williams has a 0.61 ERA in two August starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 14.2 innings pitched. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in four straight starts. He is 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Perez has a 3.97 ERA in two August starts, giving up 5 earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched. He has a 4.01 ERA on the road compared to 2.08 at home.
The Guardians are 8-2 over their last ten games with a 2.87 team ERA. The Marlins are 3-7 over their last ten games with a 6.04 team ERA.
Cleveland is 30-27 at home. Miami is 29-31 on the road.
7:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-150, 8.5)
The Yankees (64-56) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-2 as -180 home favorites and then cruising again yesterday 9-1 as -215 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Twins (56-63) send out righty Joe Ryan (11-5, 2.79 ERA) and the Yankees turn to fellow righty Cam Schlitter (1-2, 4.38 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Minnesota +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Bronx Bombers to complete the sweep, steaming the Yankees up from -125 to -150.
At Circa, New York is receiving 39% of moneyline bets but 52% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the sharper wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the home chalk.
Favorites off a win with a winning record receiving at least 5-cents of line movement who also made the playoffs the previous year are 140-68 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites -160 or less off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 101-62 (62%) with a 9% ROI.
New York has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees have the more explosive bats, hitting .250 with 190 homers and 611 runs scored compared to the Twins hitting .239 with 140 homers and 497 runs scored.
New York is 37-24 at home. Minnesota is 24-38 on the road.
10:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 9.5) at Athletics
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Rays (58-63) won the opener 7-4, cashing as a -110 road pick’em. Then the Athletics (54-68) bounced back with a 6-0 win yesterday, coming through as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Rays tap righty Drew Rasmussen (9-5, 2.66 ERA) and the Athletics go with fellow righty J.T. Ginn (2-4, 4.39 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 road favorite and the Athletics a +105 home dog.
Sharps have sided with the Rays to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Tampa Bay up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 61% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites after getting shut out in the previous game have gone 28-16 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Tampa Bay has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win
Rasmussen has a 0.00 ERA in two August starts, allowing zero earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in 7 straight starts. He is 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA on the road this season.
Meanwhile, Ginn has a 6.75 ERA in two August starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched. He has a 5.54 ERA at home compared to 3.29 on the road.
The Rays also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.72 compared to 5.11 for the Athletics (3rd worst in MLB).
