Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12:35 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies (-180, 7.5)
The Phillies (65-48) have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, dominating the opener 13-3 as -200 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-0 as -145 home favorites.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Orioles (51-63) hand the ball to lefty Trevor Rogers (4-2, 1.44 ERA) and the Phillies counter with fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez (8-4, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -150 home favorite and Baltimore a +130 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Phillies to complete the sweep, steaming Philadelphia up from -150 to -180.
At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the wiseguy desert wagers laying the chalk with the home favorite.
Favorites off a win with a winning record receiving at least 5-cents of line movement against a team who made the playoffs the previous season are 135-62 (69%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 105-62 (63%) with a 6% ROI.
The Phillies are 37-13 (74%) with a 14% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction, 2nd best in MLB.
Philadelphia has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Phillies have the more productive bats, hitting .255 with 534 runs scored compared to the Orioles hitting .242 with 492 runs scored.
Philadelphia is hitting .250 against lefties (9th best in MLB). Baltimore is hitting .227 against southpaws (23rd).
The Phillies are 37-20 at home. The Orioles are 24-36 on the road.
1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-200, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers (66-49) won the opener 6-3, taking care of business as -185 home favorites. Then the Twins (53-60) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins send out righty Pierson Ohl (0-2, 7.50 ERA) and the Tigers go with fellow righty Jack Flaherty (6-10, 4.36 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -130 home favorite and Minnesota a +110 road dog.
Initially, the Twins starter was undecided. Once it was announced Ohl would start on three days rest, we saw a big adjustment toward the Tigers -130 to -170. Then pros pounced the Tigers even harder up to -200.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneylien dollars. At Circa, Detroit is taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
The Tigers are 38-19 (67%) with a 7% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction, 4th best in MLB. Detroit is 18-6 (75%) with a 15% ROI as a home favorite against sub .500 teams.
The Tigers have the superior offense, hitting .250 with 147 homers and 552 runs scored compared to the Twins hitting .241 with 131 homers and 471 runs scored.
Flaherty has only allowed 1 earned run in his last two starts, spanning 12 innings. He is 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Ohl is making his 3rd career appearance and has given up 5 earned runs in 6 innings pitched.
The Tigers are 37-22 at home. The Twins are 23-26 on the road.
1:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets (-180, 7.5)
The Guardians (58-55) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 7-6 in extra innings as +165 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 3-2 as +135 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians tap righty Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.33 ERA) and the Mets (63-51) start lefty David Peterson (7-4, 2.83 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -165 home favorite and Cleveland a +150 road dog.
Sharps are banking on the Mets to earn a victory and avoid the sweep, steaming New York up from -165 to -180.
At DraftKings, the Mets are taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is receiving 53% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 105-62 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Mets are 34-16 (68%) with a 8% ROI as a home favorite, the 5th best home favorite in MLB.
New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mets have the better bats, hitting .241 with 139 homers and 500 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .229 with 118 homers and 446 runs scored.
Peterson has given up 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. He is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Williams has a 4.03 ERA on the road compared to 2.77 at home.
The Guardians are only hitting .227 against lefties, ranking 22nd in MLB.
The Mets are 38-20 (66%) at home, the 2nd best home team in MLB.
