Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
Top MLB Resources:
4:07 p.m. ET: Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (-145, 9.5)
The Angels (32-34) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 7-4 as -145 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 2-1 in extra innings as -165 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Athletics (26-43) hand the ball to lefty JP Sears (5-5, 5.21 ERA) and the Angels counter with righty Kyle Hendicks (3-6, 5.40 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -125 home favorite and the Athletics a +105 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down hard on the Angels to complete the sweep, steaming Los Angeles up from -125 to -145.
At Circa, the Angels are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home chalk.
When both teams are below .500 the home favorite off a win, like the Angels here, has gone 38-21 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Angels have played far better as of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games with a 4.75 team ERA. On the other hand, the Athletics are 3-7 over their last ten games with a 5.31 team ERA.
Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 against the Athletics this season.
The Athletics are just 8-20 (29%) with a -36% ROI as a road dog this season, the third worst road dog in MLB.
7:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins (-145, 8.5)
The Rangers (32-35) dominated last night’s series opener 16-4, easily cashing as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers send out righty Jack Leiter (4-2, 3.48 ERA) and the Twins (35-31) go with fellow righty David Festa (0-1, 5.40 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -130 home favorite and Texas a +110 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen Minnesota move up from -130 to -145.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 15-cent line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Twins to bounce back with a victory.
At Circa, Minnesota is receiving 69% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy and further evidence of big pro desert money laying the chalk with the Twins.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Twins here, are 200-113 (64%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Minnesota has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Minnesota is hitting .249 against righties this season (17th) compared to .228 (28th) for Texas. The Twins are also hitting .250 at home (12th) compared to Texas hitting .224 (26th) on the road.
Texas is just 6-16 (27%) with a -42% ROI as a road dog this season, the fourth worst road dog in MLB.
Festa has a 1.38 ERA at home compared to 19.64 on the road.
The Twins are 19-11 at home this season. The Rangers are 12-22 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-125, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Yankees (40-25) cruised to a 10-2 victory in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -200 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees tap righty Clarke Schmidt (2-3, 4.04 ERA) and the Royals start lefty Kris Bubic (5-3, 1.43 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -120 road favorite and Kansas City a +100 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Yankees laying short road chalk, driving New York up from -120 to -125. Some shops are even approaching -130.
At Circa, New York is only taking in 45% of moneyline bets but a whopping 92% of moneylone dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of sharp money in Vegas backing the Bronx Bombers.
New York has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees have the far more explosive offense, hitting .261 with 107 homers and 359 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .253 with 45 homers and 228 runs scored. New York is hitting .271 against lefties this season, tied for 2nd best in MLB against southpaws.
The Yankees are 38-20 (66%) with a 5% ROI as a favorite this season. New York is 31-14 (69%) with a 10% ROI as a favorite against non-division opponents.
New York is 4-0 against Kansas City this season.
