Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Diamondbacks (41-38) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, dominating the opener 10-0 as -145 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-1 as -125 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks tap righty Zac Gallen (5-8, 5.60 ERA) and the White Sox (25-55) start fellow righty Sean Burke (3-7, 4.50 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -135 road favorite and Chicago a +115 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down the Snakes to complete the sweep, steaming Arizona up from -135 to -155.
At Circa, the Diamondbacks are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in the desert banking on another Arizona win.
Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160 are 45-23 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Arizona has a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .255 with 114 homers and 410 runs scored compared to Chicago only hitting .219 with 61 homers and 273 runs scored.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .252 on the road (7th) and .254 against righties (10th). Meanwhile, the White Sox are hitting .220 at home (30th) and .214 against righties (30th).
Chicago is just 13-24 (35%) against teams with an above .500 record.
The Diamondbacks are 21-20 on the road. The White Sox are 16-23 at home.
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-150, 9)
The Braves (37-41) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 3-2 as -150 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-4 as -135 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Braves hand the ball to righty Didier Fuentes (0-1, 7.20 ERA) and the Mets (46-34) counter with fellow righty Clay Holmes (7-4, 3.04 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and Atlanta a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mets to get back on track, steaming New York up from -135 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Favorites who made the postseason the previous year receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction are 215-112 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year playing an opponent who also made the postseason the previous year are 82-40 (67%) with a 13% ROI.
The Mets are 25-9 (74%) with a 14% ROI as a home favorite, the second best home favorite record in MLB.
Holmes is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA at home this season. New York is 10-5 in his 15 starts overall.
Meanwhile, the 20-year-old Fuentes is making his second career start after giving up 4 runs in 5 innings pitched in a 6-2 loss against the Marlins in his MLB debut.
New York is 27-12 at home. Atlanta is 15-26 on the road.
7:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-145, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals (44-36) have taken the first two games in this four-game series, winning the opener 8-2 as +100 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-7 as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (46-33) send out lefty Matthew Boyd (6-3, 2.84 ERA) and the Cardinals go with righty Erick Fedde (3-6, 3.54 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 road favorite and St. Louis a +105 home dog.
Sharps are expecting the Cubs to bounce back and have steamed Chicago up from -125 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 63% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 103-64 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Cubs are 37-18 (67%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite this season, the 3rd best chalk team in MLB. Chicago is also 22-8 (73%) with a 30% ROI off a loss, the second best “bounce back” team in MLB.
Chicago has the more explosive offense, hitting 115 homers and scoring 426 runs compared to St. Louis hitting 81 homers and scoring 382 runs. The Cubs are hitting .256 against righties (7th best in MLB) while the Cardinals are hitting .242 against lefties (15th).
Boyd has a 2.22 ERA in four June starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Fedde is just 2-2 with a 4.36 ERA at home this season.
The Cubs also have the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.45 compared to 3.92 for the Cardinals.
