Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-140, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
The Cubs (38-22) won last night’s series opener 8-3, taking care of business as -145 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs send out lefty Matthew Boyd (5-2, 3.08 ERA) and the Nationals (28-32) counter with fellow southpaw MacKenzie Gore (2-5, 3.16 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 road favorite and Washington a +110 home dog.
Wiseguys have jumped on the Cubs laying short road chalk, steaming Chicago up from -125 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160, like the Cubs here, are 38-20 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Chicago has the better bats, hitting .262 with 81 homers and 349 runs scored compared to Washington hitting .244 with 60 homers and 268 runs scored. The Cubs are hitting .277 on the road (1st in MLB) and .261 against lefties (6th). Meanwhile, the Nats are hitting .234 against lefties (17th).
Chicago has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.57 compared to 5.93 for Washington (2nd worst in MLB).
The Cubs are 29-12 (71%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite, the second best chalk team in MLB. Chicago is 17-6 (74%) with a 14% ROI as favorite against a sub .500 team.
Chicago is 18-11 on the road. Washington is 13-15 at home.
7:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (-190, 9)
The Yankees (37-22) won last night’s series opener 3-2, cashing as -200 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (32-27) start righty Luis Ortiz (2-6, 4.40 ERA) and the Yankees tap fellow righty Clarke Schmidt (2-2, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -175 home favorite and Cleveland a +145 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have laid the wood with New York, steaming the Yankees up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 91% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of a Bronx Bombers victory at home.
Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their favor are 96-49 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites with a line move in their direction who also made the playoffs the previous season are 141-58 (69%) with a 10% ROI. Home favorites -185 or more who made the playoffs the previous season are 77-20 (79%) with a 13% ROI.
The Yankees have the more explosive offense, hitting .258 with 97 homers and 322 runs scored compared to the Guardians only hitting .234 with 61 homers and 237 runs scored.
Ortiz has a 6.39 ERA on the road compared to 2.22 at home. Cleveland is 1-4 in his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Schmidt posted a 3.14 ERA in five May starts, giving up only 10 earned runs in 28.2 innings pitched. He has a 3.18 ERA at home compared to 4.79 on the road.
New York is 19-9 at home. The Guardians are 15-16 on the road.
10:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (-175, 10) at Athletics
The Twins (33-27) have taken the first two games in this four-game series, winning the opener 10-4 as -165 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 10-3 as -210 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Twins hand the ball to righty Zebby Matthews (0-1, 6.43 ERA) and the Athletics (23-39) turn to lefty Jeffrey Springs (5-4, 4.72 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -135 road favorite and the Athletics a +115 home dog.
Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down hard on the Twins to keep rolling, steaming Minnesota up from -135 to -175.
At Circa, the Twins are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas laying the road chalk with Minnesota.
The Twins have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Minnesota has done well against “bad” teams, going 13-4 (77%) with a 23% ROI as a favorite against below .500 teams.
The Twins have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.17 (4th best in MLB) compared to 6.34 for the Athletics (worst in MLB). Minnesota has also pitched far better of late, posting a team ERA of 3.79 over their last ten games compared to 8.79 for the Athletics.
Minnesota is 18-10 in night games. The Athletics are 15-24.
The Athletics are 9-21 at home this season, the second worst home team in MLB.
