Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 17 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-220, 7)
The Tigers (28-15) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 14-2 as -105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 10-9 in extra innings as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox (22-22) go with righty Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 2.78 ERA) and the Tigers start lefty Tarik Skubal (4-2, 2.08 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -200 home favorite and Boston a +180 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Tigers to complete the sweep with their ace on the mound, steaming Detroit up from -200 to -220. Some shops are even touching -230.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Detroit is raking in only 36% of moneyline bets but 76% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Tigers out in Vegas.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 98-48 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 72-34 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Home favorites -200 or more are 67-17 (80%) with a 12% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-72 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Tigers are 16-5 at home this season. The Red Sox are 11-13 on the road.
Skubal has a 1.38 ERA in two May starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 13 innings pitched. The Tigers are 5-1 in his last six starts. He has a 1.13 ERA at home compared to 3.04 on the road.
7:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-160, 8)
The Rays (19-22) took last night’s series opener 11-9, cashing as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays hand the ball to righty Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 3.86 ERA) and the Blue Jays (20-21) counter with fellow righty Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.35 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays to bounce back with a win, steaming Toronto up from -140 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 69% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites off a loss are 94-56 (63%) with a 4% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, the favorite is 50-21 (70%) with a 14% ROI. Home favorites -150 or more are 128-55 (70%) with a 4% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 95-54 (64%) with a 5% ROI.
Home favorites who lost the series opener have gone 29-16 (64%) with a 9% ROI in the second game this season.
Toronto has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Blue Jays have the hotter bats as of late, hitting .292 over their past ten games compared to the Rays hitting only .225.
Bassitt has a 2.20 ERA at home this season compared to 3.99 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres (-185, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Angels (17-24) won the opener 9-5, cashing as +185 road dogs. Then the Padres (26-15) bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, taking care of business as -225 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series finale, the Angels send out righty Kyle Hendricks (1-4, 5.30 ERA) and the Padres turn to fellow righty Randy Vasquez (2-3, 3.76 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -175 home favorite and Los Angeles a +155 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -175 to -185. Some shops are even inching toward -190.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, San Diego is taking in 70% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Padres at home.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 98-48 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 39-18 (68%) with a 13% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-72 (67%) with an 8% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 72-34 (68%) with a 9% ROI.
The Padres have the better bats, hitting .265 with 191 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting only .216 with 157 runs scored.
San Diego is 15-5 at home. Los Angeles is 8-14 on the road.
The Padres have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.32 (7th best) compared to 7.07 for the Angels (dead last in MLB).
San Diego is hitting .263 at home (6th) while Los Angeles is hitting only .214 on the road (28th).
Hendricks has a 7.00 ERA on the road compared to 3.57 at home. Vasquez has a 2.30 ERA at home compared to 4.76 on the road.
