Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Rays (27-27) took the opener 7-2, cashing as -115 home favorites. Then the Twins (30-24) bounced back with a 4-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -125 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins hand the ball to righty Pablo Lopez (4-2, 2.31 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (3-4, 2.60 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Tampa Bay up from -110 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving only 39% of moneyline bets but 51% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bays is taking in 40% of moneyline bets but a whopping 76% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team.
The Rays have value betting system value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored benefiting and more likely to come from the team who is expected to win.
Tampa Bay has performed better as of late, hitting .248 with a 2.22 team ERA over their last ten games compared to Minnesota hitting .234 with a 3.03 team ERA.
The Rays are hitting .255 against righties (9th best in MLB) while the Twins are hitting .243 (20th).
Tampa Bay is also hitting .249 at home (15th) compared to Minnesota hitting .230 on the road (21st).
1:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-170, 9) at Cleveland Guardians
The Dodgers (34-21) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 7-2 as -180 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-5 as -135 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Dodgers send out lefty Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 7.50 ERA) and the Guardians (29-25) turn to fellow southpaw Kolby Allard (2-0, 1.50 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -135 road favorite and Cleveland a +115 home dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Dodgers to complete the sweep, hammering Los Angeles up from -135 to -170.
At Circa, the Dodgers are only receiving 47% of moneyline bets but a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Dodgers out in Vegas.
Los Angeles has betting value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Bigger favorites -170 or more with line movement in their direction are 125-49 (72%) with a 4% ROI this season.
The Dodgers have the far better offense, hitting .264 with 87 homers and 310 runs scored compared to the Guardians only hitting .230 with 56 homers and 216 runs scored.
Los Angeles is hitting .248 on the road (9th best in MLB) while Cleveland is only hitting .214 at home (dead last).
The Dodgers are also hitting .259 against lefties (7th) compared to the Guardians only hitting .216 (24th).
3:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Diamondbacks (27-28) won the opener 5-0, taking care of business as -190 home favorites. Then the Pirates (20-36) clawed back with a 9-6 come-from-behind win yesterday, cashing as +215 road dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Pirates go with righty Paul Skenes (3-5, 2.36 ERA) and the Diamondbacks start fellow righty Zac Gallen (3-6, 5.25 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -125 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +105 road dog.
Sharps have sided with the Snakes to earn a win and take the series, driving Arizona up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite is 61-32 (66%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division “sweet spot” favorites -135 to -160 are 96-58 (62%) with a 6% ROI.
Arizona has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Diamondbacks have the more explosive bats, hitting .256 with 76 homers and 278 runs scored compared to the Pirates only hitting .225 with 39 homers and 173 runs scored.
The Snakes are also hitting .263 at home (7th best in MLB) while the Pirates are only hitting .209 on the road (28th).
Pittsburgh is 7-20 on the road, the third worst road record in MLB.
The Diamondbacks are 10-8 in day games. The Pirates are 7-16.
