Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-165, 7)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cubs (22-15) won the opener 9-2, cruising as -175 home favorites. Then the Giants (23-14) bounced back with a 14-5 win in extra innings last night, cashing as +125 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants hand the ball to lefty Robbie Ray (4-0, 3.05 ERA) and the Cubs send out righty Ben Brown (3-2, 4.88 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 home favorite and San Francisco a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cubs to win today and take the series, steaming Chicago up from -130 to -165.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving only 36% of moneyline bets but a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger respected wagers laying the home chalk at Wrigley.
Home favorites with a winning record are 123-62 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 85-48 (64%) with a 7% ROI. When both teams are above .500, the favorite is 47-30 (61%) with a 4% ROI. Home favorites -150 or more are 109-47 (70%) with a 4% ROI.
The Cubs are 10-2 (83%) off a loss this season, the best “bounce back” team in baseball.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .261 with 55 homers and 222 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .236 with 39 homers and 180 runs scored.
6:45 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-135, 9.5)
The Rangers (18-18) won last night’s series opener 6-1, taking care of business as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rangers go with righty Tyler Mahle (3-1, 1.19 ERA) and the Red Sox (18-19) counter with fellow righty Tanner Houck (0-2, 6.38 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -120 home favorite and Texas a +105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Red Sox to bounce back with a win, steaming the Red Sox up from -120 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 54% of moneyline bets and 63% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are only taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a hefty 89% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of Boston to earn a win at Fenway.
Home favorites are 224-125 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 85-48 (64%) with a 7% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 84-45 (65%) with an 8% ROI.
Boston has the better bats, hitting .253 with 42 homers and 180 runs scored compared to Texas hitting only .234 with 31 homers and 119 runs scored.
The Red Sox have additional value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Houck has a 2.13 ERA at home this season compared to 8.63 on the road.
The Red Sox are hitting .261 at home this season (6th) while the Rangers are only hitting .229 on the road (17th).
9:38 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-125, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels (14-20) won last night’s series opener 8-3, cashing as +100 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays (16-19) start righty Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.98 ERA) and the Angels rebuttal with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 4.21 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -115 road favorite and Los Angeles a +100 home dog.
Wiseguys have pounced on the Blue Jays laying short road chalk, steaming Toronto up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Blue Jays are taking in 86% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of Toronto.
Favorites off a loss are 133-83 (62%) with a 3% ROI this season. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 84-45 (65%) with an 8% ROI.
Toronto has additional value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Blue Jays are 5-1 in Berrios’ last six starts. He has a 2.60 ERA on the road compared to 5.01 at home. Meanwhile, the Angels are 1-6 in Kickuchi’s seven starts.
Toronto is hitting .246 against lefties this season (12th in MLB). Los Angeles is only hitting .220 against righties (28th).
