Tuley Takes: Wednesday MLB Best Bets 7/19

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Tuesday Best Bet recaps

Tuesday was a relatively slow sports betting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we mostly spent it draining the pool and continuing to work on my articles for the upcoming VSiN College Football Betting Guide (due out Aug. 3).
The wait for the MLB games to start wasn’t worth it as we lost our top play on the Brewers, and it actually cost us 2 units as we had First 5 Innings +0.5 +100 and First 5 +170. Philadelphia scored 1 run apiece off Julio Teheran in the first 3 innings, so that didn’t go as planned. The Brewers also failed to get a single hit off Aaron Nola in the first 4 innings; they finally broke through in the bottom of the 5th but got only 2 runs to trail 3-2 and lose our wagers.

 

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At least we won with Dodgers First 5 Innings +105 at the Orioles as LA exploded for 5 runs in the top of the 1st inning and coasted to a 5-1 lead after 5 and went on to easily win 10-3 (we wish we had made this our Best Bet of the day!).
Anyway, the 1-2 day further cut into our round-robin profits from last Friday. Our official plays here dropped to a woeful 11-22-1 so far in July for a net loss of $855, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page.
In Tuesday’s column, I mentioned that my friend, Roger Dorn (his real name, not the fictional third baseman from the movie “Major League), asked if I should start looking at full-game moneylines. Instead, I brought up something I mentioned here a few weeks ago that maybe it was time to start betting First 3 Inning lines to further shorten these bets with my dogs.
Since I like it best when my columns are interactive with my loyal readers, I asked for input on whether our group is interested in First 3 plays, or even if your bookies offer them. I received several responses – via email at tuley@vsin.com, in my DMs on Twitter @ViewFromVegas as well as the “Fans of VSiN” Facebook group – even though I neglected to post my contact info overnight and didn’t add it until later in the morning. So, I’ll wait another day for readers to give me their feedback before I make any adjustments in how we post these plays.
So, for now, let’s try to get back on the winning track with two MLB First 5 underdogs on Tuesday.

Wednesday MLB Best Bets

A’s First 5 Innings +0.5 +110 an F5 +160 ML vs. Red Sox: We know many will pass on the A’s, the worst team in baseball, but we have had success with them in “swagger” spots like this and they did just snap an 8-game losing streak (4 before the All-Star Break, 4 after) with a confidence-building 3-0 win vs. the Red Sox on Tuesday night. We lost yesterday with a similar combo of F5 runline and moneyline, and the VSiN Pro Picks page grades these all as 1-unit plays, but we’ve had a lot of success by betting 2 to 3 times as much on the +0.5 in case there’s a tie after 5 innings (winning the RL bet while getting a refund on the ML). As we’ve been discussing a lot lately, decide for yourself how you opt to play this if you’re with me.

Padres First 5 Innings +100 at Blue Jays: Maybe this is the better play (for those who don’t trust the A’s), just like the Dodgers coming through as my secondary play on Tuesday. Anyway, both these teams have a lot of potential but have underperformed a lot this season, but the Padres might have broken through with their 9-1 win last night and I’ll trust Yu Darvish to outbattle Jose Berrios.