Tuley: Wednesday Best Bets in MLB, NBA, NHL; plus early XFL Week 10 picks


Wednesday Best Bets column

Welcome to our “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bets column for Wednesday..
Regular readers will realize that starting today we’ve split our daily column (that has been running for the past 19 months since September 2021) into two separate pieces: there’s a FREE article where I put on my old-time reporters’ hat with my “press” card as we recap the betting action from the night before and update league-wide ATS stats in the various sports, and then this one where I put on my handicappers’ hat (just one of my many VSiN or other baseball caps) and look for the best betting opportunities on today’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles should be found in VSiN’s FREE daily newsletter (subscribers should already be receiving that in their inbox each morning; newbies can sign up for free at https://vsin.com/newsletter/) or on the VSiN.com home page, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated VSiN page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/ to easily find these columns each day.


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So, without further ado, let’s go over how our picks fared on Tuesday and then look for plays on Wednesday’s busy schedule.

Tuley’s Tuesday Best Bet Results

First of all, I hope everyone got their 2022 taxes filed by Tuesday midnight’s deadline. Unfortunately, I ended up having to file for an automatic extension as I was on pace to get finished in time, but then my wife’s minivan broke down with an electrical problem and I had to fulfill my husbandly duties. It took more than four hours – way longer than expected – to get our extended warranty verified and get a tow truck. But that’s my cross to bear.
Anyway, as much as that ordeal sucked, I was even more bummed when I lost my favorite play of the day on the Hawks First Half +6 at the Celtics. The Hawks looked live early as they led 22-11 midway through the opening quarter, but the Celtics went on a 17-3 run to lead 28-25 by the end of the first 12 minutes, then extended that to 61-49 by halftime to doom our bet.
My Brewers First 5 +135 play at the Mariners also started out great as the Brew Crew jumped out to a 3-0 lead, but the Mariners responded with four runs i the bottom of the third inning to lead 4-3 after 5 innings and deal us another loss (note: the Brewers did win 6-5 the game in 11 innings for those who played it that way).
But the day wasn’t a total loss as we hit our NHL First-Period Over parlay with the Lightning-Maple Leafs 1P Over 1.5 -130 and the Kraken-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -135 (parlay payed a juicy +208) as the Lightning led the Maple Leafs 3-0 after the first 20 minutes and the Kraken and Avalanche traded goals for a 1-1 tie to get us the cash.

Wednesday MLB Best Bet

Rangers First 5 Innings -105 at Royals: We’re reluctant to say “the wrong team is favored,” but we’ll say it anyway as we saw most books posting the 4-14 Royals as short home favorites over the 11-6 Rangers overnight. In addition, we get Texas’ Martin Perez (2-1, 2.87 ERA) against KC’s Bradley Singer (1-1, 7.88 ERA), so anything in the pick-’em range, give or take a dime, looks like value to us.

Wednesday NBA Best Bet

Timberwolves First Half +4.5 at Nuggets: The T-wolves let us down Sunday as they were the only dog that didn’t win (or at least cover) in the four Game 1s played that day. They’re the zig-zag (aka “loser of the last”) play of the day as I’m not laying the Bucks -6 vs. the Heat or taking the Grizzlies +1 vs. the Lakers, especially with the concerns about Ja Morant (listed questionable). We’ll try again with the first-half line since we’ve seen several of our dogs lately stick around only to lose the cover late.

Wednesday NHL Best Bet

Wild +130 at Stars: Unfortunately, we don’t have a 1P Over play today as this is the alternating day with more Under teams in action (Kings-Oilers is the only 1P Over candidate). I considered making a straight bet on the 1P Under in this game, but oddsmakers are wise to that tactic as they’ve shaded the 1P total to Under 1.5 -120 (and the game total is Under 5.5 -125). So, we’ll take the Wild to steal both games in Dallas after beating the Stars on Monday as this is actually an “anti-swagger” spot for the Stars as they had a 6-game winning streak snapped in Game 1. Note: the Oilers are in a bigger “anti-swagger” spot after having their 9-game winning streak snapped in their Game 1 loss to the Kings, but I’m less confident in that play – I’m hoping I’m not being blinded by all the Connor McDavid hype.

XFL Week 10 Best Bets

Orlando Guardians +8.5 at St. Louis Battlehawks and Vegas Vipers +8.5 at Seattle Sea Dragons: We gave these plays on “The Greg Peterson Experience” as both are fades of the Battlehawks, who need to win to clinch an XFL playoff spot, and the Sea Dragons, who need to win in case the Battlehawks fall. In both cases, I feel the lines are inflated too high due to those teams being in “must-win” situations, plus the Guardians and Vipers are much improved from earlier in the season and look like they enjoy playing spoiler down the stretch (Orlando had covered 3 straight before pushing as 2-point dogs in 25-23 loss at San Antonio on Saturday and the Vipers are also playing better since switching to Jalan McClendon at QB and took Houston to the final gun on Saturday). Note: I haven’t added these to the VSiN PRO Best Bets page yet as we’ve been waiting to see how high these lines go, though we suspect 8.5 might be the top for both (but we’ll keep monitoring these).