Tuley’s Takes: Friday Best Bets as MLB resumes after All-Star Break

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Tuley’s Takes daily column returns after All-Star Break

Yep, we’re back after a few days off as the MLB regular season resumes after the break.

 

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After a run of 357 straight days since last July, we didn’t have this “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bet column the past 3 days on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday – though technically the only full day off from any ATS Report/Best Bets columns was Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
The last time we were together in this space on Monday, I won my Best Bet on Julio Rodriguez +140 vs. Pete Alonso in the first round of the Home Run Derby. However, he didn’t come through for us on our +560 play to win the whole thing, plus I also dropped a play on Mookie Betts +175 in the first round vs. eventual champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
So, my official plays on the day went 1-2 for -0.6 units as we’re still trying to dig out of our July hole at 6-14 and -7.15 units, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page.
Let’s try to get back into the swing of things right away with our Best Bets on Friday. Our “swagger/anti-swagger” plays get reset with the winning/losing streaks heading into the All-Star Break not considered to have many lasting effects (though, I suppose if the Orioles and/or Red Sox were to continue to build their 5-game winning streaks or the Angels’ 5-game skid were to continue, I might reconsider over the weekend).
I don’t know if I’ve just had too much time on my hands to go over Friday’s card, but I have four First 5 dogs I like. I typically try to whittle down to my top 2 plays with my MLB dogs, but I can’t really separate them so I’m listing them all (note: I also considered the Reds and Cubs – both at even money vs. the Brewers and Red Sox, respectively – so unofficially I’ll probably be playing a big round-robin).

MLB Friday Best Bets

Astros First 5 Innings +140 at Angels: This is my favorite play of the day (a little hint to newbies, though I’m sure most regular followers already know this: the thumbnail photo with these columns and in my posts on Twitter @ViewFromVegas always represent my top play here, though we hope you get more from reading the full columns!). Anyway, we feel this line is overpriced with Shohei Ohtani (7-4, 3.32 ERA) starting for the Angels. In addition, Houston’s J.P. France (4-3, 3.26 ERA) is nearly as good, plus L.A. is a .500 team that has a well-earned reputation for not giving much run support.

Guardians First 5 Innings +125 at Rangers: We’re fading another solid pitcher here in Jon Gray (6-5, 3.20 ERA), but Cleveland counters with Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.56 ERA). Again, we’re happy to take plus-money on what looks like closer to a pick-’em.

Rockies First 5 Innings +170 vs. Yankees: I saw Colorado’s Austin Gomber in person last Friday in San Francisco and he certainly looked better than his 7-7 record and 6.40 ERA as he allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings. Besides, the Yankees’ aren’t as dangerous even at high altitude without Aaron Judge. Note: this is a big price, and back on Sunday when I was trying to come out of my slump and admittedly gun-shy, I posted the Nationals First 5 +0.5 +105 and didn’t list the F5 moneyline, yet the Nats won it outright. I’m not making that same mistake again, so I’ll be playing both.

Tigers First 5 Innings +150 at Mariners: The Tigers are subpar at 39-50, but something has gotten into their pitching staff with the combined no-hitter last Saturday and then Tarik Skubal throwing 4 shutout innings to cash our First 5 bet on Sunday before the bullpen lost in extra innings. We look for Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5, 2.64 ERA) to continue that trend and keep the Tigers close early.