Tuley’s Takes: Friday MLB Best Bets 7/21

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Thursday Best Bet recaps

Even though there was only a 10-game MLB card on Thursday, it was a pretty full sports betting day with several of those game during the day in addition to the opening round of the British Open (as we said in our ATS Report, we side with VSiN colleague Bill Adee and Matt Youmans in calling it that instead of “The Open Championship” or the even more arrogant “The Open”).

 

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We’ll leave the golf roundups to others as we’re sticking to MLB for the majority of our betting action this weekend (I am in some golf pools, but I think Viktor Hovland is the only golfer I used that is under par).
Baseball treated us much better Thursday as I went 2-0-1 with my Best Bets as I won with the Diamondbacks First 5 Innings +0.5 runs +100 (closed as high as +120 here in Vegas at Circa Sports, so hopefully followers also got a better price) as it was a scoreless tie through 5 innings with Zac Gallen vs. Spencer Strider. I feel even better about the pick as I wrote: “we love getting around even money with the D-backs +0.5 in case there’s a tie through 5 innings as we could easily see this matchup being 0-0 or 1-1.” Cha-ching!
We officially pushed our second wager on the game with Diamondbacks First 5 +160, but that’s why we structured our bets the way we did.
We also won again with our secondary play on the Brewers First 5 Innings +100 at the Phillies as the Brewers led 3-0 after scoring 3 runs in the top of the 3rd inning (which means we would have also won if we had used the First 3 line we’ve been discussing the past few days). The Brewers also won the game 3-0 for those who get our plays on the full-game moneyline, but we should mention that the D-backs ended up losing 7-5 to the Braves, so we feel that justifies our sticking to the First 5 wagers.
Anyway, the 2-0-1 record with the officially posted Best Bets (just the First 5s) helped us to further cut into our losses so far in July as we’re still 16-22-1 for a net loss of $285 based on $100 flat bets, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page. However, it’s nice to see we’re now 10-8-1 since returning from the All-Star Break for a net profit of $430, ranking third at the network behind only auto racing handicapper Brendan Gaughan and man-of-all-sports Wes Reynolds.
Again, see Thursday’s column for the results of my informal reader poll into whether to stick with First 5 Inning wagers or to switch to First 3 (and thanks again to all who responded). Let’s get to our preferred plays on Friday’s full 15-game card.

Friday MLB Best Bets

Pirates First 5 Innings +0.5 +110 and F5 +175 ML at Angels: This is a “mini-swagger play” as the Pirates lost their first 5 games after the All-Star Break before beating the Guardians 7-5 on Wednesday to get back some swagger. We’re not getting the best of the pitching matchup with Johan Oviedo (4.53 ERA) vs. Shoehei Ohtani (3.50 ERA), but Ohtani is only 7-5 and we’ve often seen the Angels fail to give him much run support. We just feel this line is overpriced, plus just like the last 2 days we like the option of getting +0.5 in case we get a tie..

Orioles First 5 Innings +130 at Rays: Many handicappers have been talking about how there’s value in fading the Rays as they’re still overpriced nightly from their strong start to the season. They’re scuffling with a 5-game losing streak, and the Orioles just beat them Thursday in the opener of this 4-game weekend series to take a 1-game lead in the AL East. Is this where the Orioles take control of the division? We’ll take the plus-price to find out with Kyle Bradish (3.05 ERA) vs Zach Eflin (3.59 ERA).