Tuley’s Takes: MLB Wild Card Series Best Bets:
This was one of my favorite MLB baseball regular seasons ever, and we’re really excited about the playoffs in the Tuley’s Takes home office. As most longtime readers know, I grew up in the Chicago suburb of Glendale Heights (where I played Glenside Baseball with Billy Corgan, who was a year behind me and went on to play for Smashing Pumpkins, etc.) as a die-hard Cubs fan. We suffered through a lot of bad teams in our youth until the NL East division titles in 1984 and 1989, but everything was made right with the 2016 World Series title.
I also grew up to love baseball betting and used to post daily best bets here at VSiN. This year, I didn’t bet as many games (mostly my “swagger” and “anti-swagger” plays during the season and some spot underdogs) and mostly played some contests and enjoyed my NL-only fantasy league.
But I got a nice bonus by winning $9,700 for first place in the Baseball Season Wins Challenge at the Westgate SuperBook here in Vegas by going 23-7 on the 30 MLB teams’ Over/Under season win totals before the season. It helped that I took the Cubs Over 86.5 and the Dodgers Under 104.5 even though the Dodgers were 2-0 and the Cubs were 0-2 from their season-opening Japan Series before the March 26 entry deadline.
But enough looking back. Let’s see what we can do with the wild-card series this Tuesday through Thursday with the top seeds getting all games in the best-of-three series at home.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Series price: Tigers -120 / Guardians +100
Game 1: Tigers -160 / Guardians +140 (Over/Under 6)
Tuley’s Take: The Guardians came on strong down the stretch to steal the AL Central division title while the Tigers had a nearly historic collapse and held on for the wild-card berth. Based on the two teams’ late-season form, we’re a little surprised that the Tigers are favored on the road in this series, though not surprised they’re favored in Game 1 with Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2,21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) on the mound. However, I have to go with the live home underdog here (both in Game 1 and the series) and obviously get the team with the better overall record and in the best recent form. Besides, I’ve done OK fading Skubal here and there, so I’m not afraid to go against him.
The Guardians counter with the not-too-shabby Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). Shhh, don’t tell anyone but Williams just outdueled Skubal last week in the first game of these teams’ crucial series, with the Guardians winning 5-2 on the way to winning the series 2-1. I’ll take plus-money on that repeating.
As for the Over/Unders, both offenses are middle of the road at best (Tigers No. 11 at 4.68 runs per game, Guardians No. 28 at 3.97 over the whole season). I usually bet Unders in postseason baseball since they tend to be lower-scoring, tighter games; however, I think the oddsmakers overadjusted (or is that underadjusted?) by making this total just 6 runs. The scores of their three games last week were 5-2, 5-1, and 4-2, so I think Over is the only way to look at the depressed number.
MLB Wild Card Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians +100 for series and +140 in Game 1 (plus anytime as home dog), and Over in any game with a betting total of 6.
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Series price: Cubs -115 / Padres -105
Game 1: Cubs -110 / Padres +100 (Over/Under 7)
Tuley’s Take: My self-proclaimed homerism gets a challenge here (though I’ve often credited my lifelong Cubs fandom for teaching me to bet with my head and not my heart). I know I’ve bet more against the Cubs in my life than on them, so I know I can be objective. It’s also easy to pass due to my “dog or pass” betting philosophy with the Cubs being a small favorite in Game 1 and the series. I’m trying not to think of 1984 when the Cubs lost to the Padres 3-2 in a best-of-five. When the Cubs led 2-0, the K-mart on North Avenue in Glendale Heights had “Cubs vs. Tigers 1984 World Series” that I wanted to buy, but I didn’t want to jinx them. Honestly, I believe the Cubs are the right side now that their bats have heated up again, though Nick Pavetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) does scare me in Game 1, so do with that what you will.
MLB Wild Card Best Bet: Pass
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Series price: Yankees -185 / Red Sox +165
Game 1: Yankees -125 / Red Sox +115 (Over/Under 7)
Tuley’s Take: In the Westgate’s Season Wins Challenge, I was cheering for the Yankees nearly every day the past few months and against the Red Sox as I needed the Yankees to go Over 91.5 wins and the Red Sox to stay Under 86.5. I got the W with the Yankees winning 94 and the L with the Red Sox winning 89, but I did gain a better respect for Boston. But not enough to take them to win the three-game series in New York, even though I’m tempted to take the +165 in Game 1 with Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). He did beat the Yanks (in Boston) in a key series earlier this month. I think that’s the better way to play this with just the Red Sox in Game 1 even with Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) pitching for New York. Actually, even though these teams are two of the best offenses in baseball, the better way to bet this series is with the Unders in each game (7 in Game 1) .
MLB Wild Card Best Bet: Boston Red Sox +165 in Game 1 only, plus Unders in all games with a total of 7 runs or higher
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -280 / Reds +240 (Over/Under 7)
Game 1: Dodgers -195 / Reds +175
Tuley’s Take: As stated above, I went Under 104.5 wins on the defending champs and used 100 as the tiebreaker in the contest. I was afraid I didn’t go low enough, as they only won 93, so there were plenty of times to fade them this season, and I’ll do it here in the wild-card round. I wish the Reds were starting Andrew Abbott in Game 1, but we’ll take Hunter Greene (7-4, 2.76 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). The Dodgers are still too loaded to go against for the series price, so we’ll just try to steal a nice 1.75 units if the Reds pull the upset in Game 1. If they lose, we’ll come back in Game 2 on Wednesday to try and lock up a tidy profit,
MLB Wild Card Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds +175 in Game 1 and, if they lose, in Game 2
Straight-up predictions to win series: Guardians in 3, Cubs in 3, Yankees in 3, Dodgers in 3
