Tuley’s Takes: Thursday Best Bet in MLB, plus updates on USFL playoff picks for weekend

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Wednesday Best Bet Results

Wednesday was pretty much a wash-out in the Tuley’s Takes home office. In the immortal words from the “Bull Durham” movie: “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains!”

 

My Best Bet of the day (and, in fact, my only bet of the day) on the Braves First 5 Innings +105 at the Phillies was rained out. However, there was a silver lining amidst the dark, gray clouds as my “dog-or-pass philosophy” saved me money as I watched favorites go 7-1 during the day games as dog after dog that I considered lost game after game (including one lean I posted on the Orioles First +120). I also passed on the night games, though my posted lean won with Rangers First 5 -110, as dogs bounced back at 4-2.
Still, I felt I saved money on the day, so that’s OK as “dog-or-pass” is all about being selective and putting in your money on the live dogs and not the dead ones.
With the no-action on the day, we’re still .500 in June at 20-20-7, and since several of my wins have been at plus-money (and I don’t need to hit 52.38% to make a profit), I’m ahead $202.28, according to the VSiN Pro Picks page, after finishing at +15.6 units in May.
Let’s look for more plays on Thursday with again just 1 play in MLB on the short 8-game card, plus update our USFL picks/leans for this weekend (though nothing has changed in the last 24 hours). Note: I know a lot of you are looking to bet the NBA Draft or this week’s PGA Tour event, but we’ll leave those to our VSiN colleagues.

MLB Thursday Best Bet

Nationals First 5 Innings +120 vs. Diamondbacks: This is a “mini-swagger” play on the Nationals as they snapped a 5-game losing streak on Wednesday in a confidence-building 3-0 home win vs. the Cardinals and face an Arizona team that is just in town from Milwaukee for this makeup of a game postponed on June 7 and then have to leave afterward for San Francisco. And it’s not the best pitching matchup, but we’re fine with taking Jake Irvin (1-3, 5.25 ERA) vs. Tommy Henry (3-1, 4.66 ERA) in this letdown travel spot for the D-backs. Note: I’m not taking the Braves again as they’re now favored at First 5 -115 with Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.60 ERA) getting the start vs. Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA) after the rain-out, but I’m sure plenty of my “dog-or-pass” disciples that aren’t as dogmatic as me will lay the short chalk. Note2: For those same people, there is another “anti-swagger” play against the Red Sox after their 6-game winning streak was snapped yesterday and they are facing the Twins -150.

USFL playoff Best Bet for Saturday

Pittsburgh Maulers-Michigan Panthers Under 39: We locked in this play in Tuesday’s edition of this column. As we previously discussed on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night (and again on Monday night), my handicap of this game has the Maulers -2 and an Over/Under of 37 points. I certainly didn’t expect the books to set it any higher with the Maulers averaging just 17.7 points per game and the Panthers at 17.1, but they did. While I was able to bet it myself at Under 42.5, there’s still value at the 39 as of Tuesday morning. Wednesday update: Over/Under is down to 38.5 at a lot of books, so shop around. With the point spread flipping to the Maulers being the underdog as of Tuesday, I might also bet that but waiting to see where the line goes. Wednesday update: the line has flipped back to the Maulers being favored, so I’m passing on the side. I’m also waiting to decide on the New Orleans Breakers-Birmingham Stallions game (I have it at Stallions -2 and Over/Under 45, which is right where the lines are as of early Tuesday). Wednesday update: the line is now back up to 3 at some books, but I’m waiting to see if I can get more points with the Breakers as I’m hoping the public drives up the line on the defending champion Stallions and we can get more than a field goal.