Wednesday Best Bets
Welcome to our “Tuley’s Takes” Best Bets column for Wednesday.
In case you missed it last week, we’ve started splitting our daily column into two separate pieces: there’s a FREE article where I recap the betting action from the night before and update league-wide ATS stats in the various sports, and then this one where I look for the best betting opportunities on today’s wagering menu.
Links to both articles should be found on the VSiN.com home page, though I advise my regular readers to also bookmark my dedicated page at https://vsin.com/news/dave-tuley-columns/.
FYI: we’re not getting involved with the NFL draft props this year. I know a lot of people make money on this, but anyone interested can find plenty of coverage on VSiN’s daily programs to try to react to the ever-changing news cycle that’s needed to get the best prices (and those are better equipped than our morning columns).
FYI2: The NHL threw us a curveball by separating the Kraken-Avalanche and Lightning-Maple Leafs on separate nights. We’re 4-0 so far these playoffs for +8.24 units, but I tried to parlay them overnight in Vegas and couldn’t find an app allowing me to bet both Wednesday and Thursday games, so I guess I can’t make it an official play.
Tuesday Best Bet Results
Tuesday was another exciting day of sports betting with the NBA and NHL playoffs along with the daily dose of MLB. We had another winning night, though we were a little conflicted with the results.
We won our top play of the day with the Pirates First 5 Innings +105 vs. Dodgers as we again found the right pitcher to fade as the Pirates lit up Noah Syndergaard to lead 7-2 after the first 5 innings. The Dodgers ended up rallying up to win 8-7, so we felt especially happy because we didn’t bet the full-game money line. We lost our secondary play on the Reds First 5 +140 vs. the Rangers as they trailed 5-0 after 5 innings, but then the Reds rallied to win 7-6, so I made the wrong call there.
We ended up having a profitable night as the Timberwolves covered as 9.5-point underdogs in their 112-109 loss at the Nuggets. We felt good that we weren’t deterred by the “points don’t matter” matter of SU winners covering the spread at a crazy rate in the NBA playoffs. However, we did regret that we also weren’t able to pull the trigger on the Hawks and the Clippers as dogs went 3-0 ATS on the night. Hopefully some of my “dog-or-pass” disciples were on those as well.
MLB Wednesday Best Bets
Astros First 5 Innings +115 at Rays: This is an “anti-swagger” play as the Rays had their 6-game winning streak snapped by the Astros on Tuesday. We also get Hunter Brown (2-0, 3.09 ERA) against Calvin Faucher (0-0, 5.91 ERA).
Red Sox First 5 -105 at Orioles: This is also an anti-swagger play against the Orioles as their 7-game winning streak was snapped on Tuesday. We don’t often get two such plays on a given day. I’ll probably also add a parlay.
NBA Wednesday Best Bet
Kings +1.5 vs. Warriors: The home team has won every game in this series so far and most people have flipped from thinking the Kings were the better overall team to jumping on the Warriors’ bandwagon as defending champs. But we’ll take the Kings as home dogs here (don’t forget the Warriors’ road troubles all season) as they’re also the only Wednesday zig-zag team not laying points (Bucks, Cavaliers and Grizzlies after dropping the last game). Also, it looks like De’Aaron Fox is going to make a go of it ala Willis Reed.
XFL playoffs Best Bet
Seattle Sea Dragons +5 at DC Defenders: We gave this out Sunday night on “The Greg Peterson Experience” when Circa Sports was one of the rare books with early lines on the XFL playoff games this upcoming weekend. We don’t like the Arlington Renegades vs. the Houston Roughnecks in Saturday’s XFL semifinal game, but took Seattle in this matchup on Sunday. DC (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) was the top team during the regular season, but Seattle lost its first 2 games of the season, including 22-18 at DC, and then went 6-1 the rest of the way with the only other loss to DC, though that was another close game at 34-33. I have this at pick’em, even with DC at home as XFL hosts are just 19-19-2 ATS overall, so home-field advantage is negligible (even though DC was 4-1 ATS at home, though failed in most recent home game as 10-point chalk in 28-26 win vs. Arlington in Week 9). I believed this line opened too high and wrote in Monday’s version of this column, “we have to take the Sea Dragons at anything more than a field goal.” It was still mostly +3.5 on Tuesday but has since dropped to 3, though Wynn Las Vegas and the 5Dimes offshore book were still holding the line at 3.5 as of early Wednesday so keep shopping around if you’re with us.