Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): TEXAS (+110 at HOU), OAKLAND (-135 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (-250 vs COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-DET (o/u at 7.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 Units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs PIT), FADE SEATTLE (-122 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-192 at MIA), NY YANKEES (-148 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (+120 at NYM), CINCINNATI (-175 at CWS), TEXAS (+110 at HOU), WASHINGTON (+114 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): ATLANTA RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 (through Monday, April 9), they are 77-69 for -12.71 units.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, LA ANGELS, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, NY METS, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, OAKLAND
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. So far in the 2024 season, the record of this angle is 12-7 for -3.48 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-192 at MIA), LA DODGERS (-192 vs SD), TORONTO (-250 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 23-22 record, for +4.14 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+105 at DET), CLEVELAND (+124 vs NYY), LA ANGELS (-110 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have started in the opposite direction, going 15-9 for +7.86 units. The three-game teams are 8-6 for +2.84 units. I don’t expect this is continue for long because the foundation of this system is based on the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MILWAUKEE (-105 at BAL)
3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+120 at NYM)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 11-9 for -3.08 units.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-115 vs MIL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 8-6 for -0.78 units, a slow start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-130 vs TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1452-1362 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -180.06 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+160 at LAD), NY METS (-135 vs KC), BALTIMORE (-115 vs MIL), KANSAS CITY (+114 at NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1305-1705 (43.4%) for -171.87 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, LA ANGELS, NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, TEXAS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2929-2562 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -386.27 units and an ROI of -7.0%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ARIZONA, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, NY METS, PHILADELPHIA
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 824-705 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.70 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (-135 vs WSH)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 277-133 (67.6%) for +45.32 units and an ROI of 11.1%!
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-115 vs MIL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts.
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 244-201 (54.8%) for +40.13 units and an ROI of 9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-130 vs TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 59-61 (-27.98 units, ROI: -23.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY (+114 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON -110 (+18 diff), COLORADO +205 (+25 diff), KANSAS CITY +120 (+30 diff), WASHINGTON +114 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE -112 (+18 diff), CINCINNATI -175 (+35 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-HOU UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), MIL-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.6), WSH-OAK UNDER 8 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) ATLANTA (7-4) at (954) MIAMI (2-11)
Trend: Atlanta was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-192 at MIA)
Trend: Miami is 0-7 (-7.10 units) vs Atlanta with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+160 vs ATL)
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (6-6) at (964) BOSTON (7-6)
Trend: LAA is 5-14 (-9.43 units) on the road in the -160 to +130 line range for starter Reid Detmers
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-108 at BOS)
Trend: Boston is 2-11 (-9.4 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-112 vs LAA)
(965) TEXAS (7-6) at (966) HOUSTON (4-10)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 5-12 (-6.92 units) as a short underdog within line range of -105 to +110 in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+110 at HOU)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 3-20 (-18.10 units) in road night games as -155 favorite or worse (including underdog) in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+110 at HOU)
(969) MILWAUKEE (8-3) at (970) BALTIMORE (8-4)
Trend: Baltimore is 0-8 (-8.42 units) all-time against teams with a 62.5% or higher win pct with starter Tyler Wells
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-115 vs MIL)
(973) KANSAS CITY (9-4) at (974) NEW YORK-NL (5-7)
Trend: Luis Severino is 9-3 (+5.40 units) in April/May starts in the last 2+ years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-135 vs KC)
(977) CHICAGO-NL (7-5) at (978) SEATTLE (5-8)
Trend: Seattle was 5-12 (-7.67 units) vs. teams with a winning record with starter Bryce Miller last season (1-0, +1.02 units this season)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-122 vs CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 12-16 (42.9%) -7.72 units, ROI: -27.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 4/12 at Miami
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-192 at MIA)
BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 9-19 (32.1%) -9.60 units, ROI: -34.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 4/12 vs. Milwaukee
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-115 vs MIL)
OAKLAND
Letdown after series vs. TEXAS: 10-18 (35.7%) -9.23 units, ROI: -33%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 4/12, vs Washington
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (-135 vs WSH)
