Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-155 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY BOSTON (-135 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-265 vs. COL), PLAY LA DODGERS (-340 vs. WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-115 at HOU), FADE ST LOUIS (-180 at OAK), FADE CINCINNATI (+130 at SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and a ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in STL-OAK, PLAY UNDER in CIN-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-135 vs CLE), FADE ARIZONA (-142 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, TEXAS, NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): PHILADELPHIA RL, KANSAS CITY RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 (through Monday, April 9), they are 77-69 for -12.71 units.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, LA ANGELS, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, ST LOUIS, SEATTLE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. So far in the 2024 season, the record of this angle is 14-10 for -8.21 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-265 vs COL), PLAY LA DODGERS (-340 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long.
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 26-30 record for -0.84 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (+102 vs. SD), CLEVELAND (+120 at BOS), MINNESOTA (+130 at BAL), DETROIT (-102 vs. TEX), LA ANGELS (+140 at TB), NY YANKEES (-110 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have started in the opposite direction, going 16-12 for +5.61 units. The three-game teams are 9-7 for +2.08 units. I don’t expect this is continue for long because the foundation of this system is based on the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at AZ), FADE BOSTON (-142 vs. CLE), FADE TORONTO (-110 vs. NYY), FADE HOUSTON (-105 vs. ATL)
3+ games – FADE CINCINNATI (+130 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1458-1370 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -181.07 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+105 at NYM), ATLANTA (-115 at HOU), TAMPA BAY (-166 vs LAA), CINCINNATI (+130 at SEA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1316-1710 (43.5%) for -164.64 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+215 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (-180 at CWS), ST LOUIS (-180 at OAK)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2940-2573 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -387.81 units and an ROI of -7.0%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, ARIZONA
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 421-351 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.24 units, for an ROI of 3.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-125 vs PIT)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home teams coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 278-133 (67.6%) for +46.32 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-166 vs LAA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +215 (+35 diff), MILWAUKEE +102 (+28 diff), WASHINGTON +270 (+60 diff), CLEVELAND +120 (+33 diff), DETROIT -102 (+22 diff), LA ANGELS +140 (+33 diff), CINCINNATI +130 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -115 (+19 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-SEA OVER 7 (+1.0), PIT-NYM OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.9)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (6-10) at (902) MIAMI (3-13)
Trend: Miami is 7-3 (+5.30 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (*if they fall into this underdog line range, -108 currently*)
(903) COLORADO (4-12) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (8-8)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 0-10 as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+215 at PHI)
(905) PITTSBURGH (11-5) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (7-8)
Trend: Martin Perez is 11-4 (+7.30 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+105 at NYM)
(907) SAN DIEGO (9-9) at (908) MILWAUKEE (10-4)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 8-1 (+6.85 units) on the road within the line range of +100 to -115 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -120 currently*)
(911) WASHINGTON (6-9) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (11-7)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 29-3 (+22.95 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in last five seasons (including 17-1 (+15.30 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-340 vs WSH)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 7-1 (+5.90 units) vs NL East teams in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-340 vs WSH)
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (7-8) at (920) TAMPA BAY (9-7)
Trend: Tampa Bay was 13-3 (+7.65 units) in night games with Zach Eflin last season (1-1, -0.48 units this season)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-166 vs LAA)
(921) NEW YORK-AL (12-4) at (922) TORONTO (8-8)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 9-5 (+3.50 units) vs AL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-112 vs NYY)
(927) ST LOUIS (7-9) at (928) OAKLAND (7-9)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 3-9 (-5.30 units) as a night time underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+150 vs STL)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #3: Chicago Cubs at Arizona, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Underdogs are 10-3 (76.9%, +8.24 units) in the last 13 of the series
The ROI on this trend is 63.4%.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at AZ)
Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Favorites are 11-1 (91.67%, +9.52 units) in the last 12 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
The ROI on this trend is 79.3%
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-125 vs PIT)
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 4/15-Wed 4/17
Trend: Favorites are just 17-29 (37%, -24.28 units) in the last 46 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
The ROI on this trend is -52.8%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-112 vs NYY)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 16-15 (51.6%) -4.65 units, ROI: -15%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 4/15 at Milwaukee
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (-122 at MIL)
