Tennis Best Bets for Monday, April 15th
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. This week, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart. I’ll scan through all of the tournaments to find some winners, so make sure you check out my stuff this week.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page. So, keep reading for my tennis picks and predictions for Monday, April 15th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 209-234 (+7.00 units)
Arthur Cazaux vs. Matteo Arnaldi – Barcelona
We haven’t seen Cazaux play in just about a month, but Arnaldi didn’t look particularly sharp in a 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 loss to Sumit Nagal in Monte Carlo. Now, the Italian has to go and face a player that isn’t all that different from Nagal, with both being aggressive baseliners with all-court games. But Cazaux happens to have more firepower from the baseline. He also has a very dangerous serve and that should give him a slight leg up on Arnaldi here. One of the things that makes Arnaldi so good is his ability to stay solid. He is really sturdy from both wings and he forces a lot of mistakes out of his opponents. He also has the ability to really dial things up with his forehand. But the slow clay courts in Barcelona will make it hard for Arnaldi to end points. Cazaux likely won’t have the same problem. The court speed should also help Cazaux get to Arnaldi’s serve.
Bet: Cazaux +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Cazaux ML (+180 – 0.5 units)
Daniel Altmaier vs. Alexei Popyrin – Barcelona
The last time these two met was last August, when Popryin earned a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4 win in Cincinnati. That was a tightly contested match that could have gone either way, and it was played on a hard court. That’s Popyrin’s favorite surface. Well, this match will be played on clay, which is Altmaier’s favorite surface. So, in a meeting between two players with big serves, it’s hard to see this being anything but a close match. And breaks of serve could come at a premium here. But Altmaier should be a little more trustworthy to come through in big moments on clay. And even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see this being anything other than a 7-6, 6-4 win for Popyrin, if it even ends in straight sets. But I think Altmaier will get on the board. And I also think he’s a live ‘dog here.
Bet: Altmaier +3.5 Games (-154 – 1.5 units)
Alexandre Muller vs. Albert Ramos Vinolas – Barcelona
I hate going against an established clay-court player like Ramos Vinolas, especially with the Spaniard playing in front of his home crowd. But age is clearly catching up to the 36-year-old, who just suffered a bad loss to Mikhail Kukushkin in the quarterfinals of the Madrid qualifiers. Ramos Vinolas has now lost four of his last six matches, and seeing him struggle to find form at the lower levels is enough to make me fade him. Muller is also capable of grinding away from the baseline and forcing longer rallies against his older opponent. That should lead to quite a few misses from Ramos Vinolas, who might try to overhit to end rallies faster. And Muller can also pick and choose his spots to be aggressive. But overall, he’ll be in better shape than his opponent here. As long as he can tune out the crowd, Muller should win this match.
Bet: Muller ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
Paula Badosa ML (-125) vs. Diana Shnaider [Stuttgart]
ATP Barcelona Futures
Stefanos Tsitsipas To Win (+500)
Casper Ruud To Win (+550)
With Carlos Alcaraz out of the field after having withdrawn with the same arm injury that forced him out of action in Monte Carlo, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get a rematch between Tsitsipas and Ruud in the final. I know Rafael Nadal is on Tsitsipas’ side of the draw, but I don’t have much faith in the Spaniard performing at a high level in his first tournament back. And Tsitsipas has looked tremendous since getting back on the dirt. Meanwhile, Ruud continues to secure good results on clay and I think his side of the draw is manageable. He likely won’t be tested much until a semi-final encounter with Andrey Rublev, Cameron Norrie or Karen Khachanov. But I trust Ruud to get by all three of them. So, I’m firing away on the two Monte Carlo finalists.