VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 18

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VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 18

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher: ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND (GAME 1 and 2), HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%

In games this season through Wednesday 8/16 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 116-80 record, but for -76.22 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.9%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MINNESOTA

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent

My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 106-41 for +20.45 units as of Thursday 8/17. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc, and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc, enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +13.9%!

System Matches: NONE TODAY

Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid

A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-270 for +63.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!

System Matches: NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks

On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-184 for -34.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.4%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.

System Matches: 2-game – FADE WASHINGTON, FADE NY METS

3-game – FADE ARIZONA, FADE SEATTLE

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks

When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 185-121 for +27.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 9.1%.

System Matches: ATLANTA, LA DODGERS

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks

Updating the results since 8/7 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.

System Matches: 2-game – ST LOUIS, BALTIMORE

3+ games – NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE

 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1430-1334 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE HOUSTON

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1677 (43.3%) for -167.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE MILWAUKEE

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.

System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE HOUSTON, FADE OAKLAND, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE COLORADO

HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long

MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 785-657 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.

System Matches: ATLANTA, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES

Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit

HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 400-325 (55.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +39.02 units, for a R.O.I. of 5.4%.

System Match: NY YANKEES

 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #1:

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 158-73 (+27.28 units, ROI: 11.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.

System Match: LA DODGERS

Winning Streak Betting System #4:

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 135-82 in their last 217 tries (+29.97 units, ROI: 13.8%).

System Match: LA DODGERS

Winning Streak Betting System #7:

Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 29-13 (+17.61 units, ROI: 41.9%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.

System Match: LA DODGERS

 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NY METS (+25), MILWAUKEE (+25), PITTSBURGH (+54), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+35)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: SAN DIEGO (+17), LA DODGERS (+33), TAMPA BAY (+29), BALTIMORE (+53)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON OVER 9 (+0.7), MILWAUKEE-TEXAS OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: BOSTON-NY YANKEES UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), TORONTO-CINCINNATI UNDER 10.5 (-1.4)

 

MLB Top Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (66-55) at (902) WASHINGTON (55-67)

Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (36-36, -10.74 units)

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (27-35, +0.03 units)

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (28-42, -0.56 units)

System Match: FADE WASHINGTON

 

(903) SAN FRANCISCO (64-57) at (904) ATLANTA (78-42)

Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (39-29, +5.52 units)

System Match: SAN FRANCISCO

Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (26-40 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Atlanta good against the NL (52-22, +15.90 units)

System Match: ATLANTA

Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (35-24 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at NIGHT (44-33 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

(905) NEW YORK-NL (56-66) at (906) ST LOUIS (54-68)

Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (25-29, -13.83 units)

System Match: FADE NY METS

Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (12-27, -24.63 units)

System Match: FADE NY METS

Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (10-28, -17.40 units)

System Match: FADE NY METS

Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (32-27 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-48, -27.92 units)

System Match: FADE ST LOUIS

 

(907) ARIZONA (62-60) at (908) SAN DIEGO (58-64)

Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (40-35, +5.96 units)

System Match: ARIZONA

Trend: Arizona 2-0 vs RHP Seth Lugo this season

System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO

Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (36-47, -30.09 units)

System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO

 

(909) MIAMI (63-59) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-46)

Trend: Miami not as good as ML underdog (21-34, -6.40 units)

System Match: FADE MIAMI

Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (37-50 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (57-27, +15.90 units)

System Match: LA DODGERS

Trend: LAD good against RH starters (54-28, +14.20 units)

System Match: LA DODGERS

 

(911) BOSTON (63-58) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (60-61)

Trend: Boston is 5-1 against NY YANKEES this season

System Match: BOSTON

Trend: NYY is bad at NIGHT (33-45, -18.72 units)

System Match: FADE NY YANKEES

Trend: Season series is trending UNDER (1-5 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

(913) DETROIT (54-66) at (914) CLEVELAND (58-63)  (DH Game #1)

Trend: Detroit good in division (22-14, +11.57 units)

System Match: DETROIT

Trend: Detroit more UNDER in DAY games (25-31 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 5-1 UNDER stretch this season

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-27 O/U!)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Cleveland not as good against LH starters (18-24, -14.00 units)

System Match: FADE CLEVELAND

 

(915) SEATTLE (66-55) at (916) HOUSTON (70-52)

Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (43-35 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Seattle good against AL West/Houston (19-11, +5.77 units in division, 5-2 vs Houston)

System Match: SEATTLE

Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (33-26, -7.12 units)

System Match: FADE HOUSTON

 

(917) TAMPA BAY (73-50) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-62)

Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-32 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (14-7, +4.60 units)

System Match: TAMPA BAY

Trend: LAA better against RH starters (48-43, +3.07 units)

System Match: LA ANGELS

 

(919) BALTIMORE (74-47) at (920) OAKLAND (34-87)

Trend: Baltimore good against AL teams (55-31, +24.58 units)

System Match: BALTIMORE

Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against AL teams

System Match: OVER

Trend: Oakland trending OVER against AL Central/East (27-13 O/U)

System Match: OVER

 

(921) KANSAS CITY (39-84) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (62-58)

Trend: Kansas City decent bet during the DAY (17-29, -4.60 units)

System Match: KANSAS CITY

Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (34-24 O/U at HOME, 24-15 O/U against AL teams, 43-37 O/U against RH starters)

System Match: OVER

 

(923) TORONTO (67-55) at (924) CINCINNATI (63-59)

Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (24-13, +7.86 units)

System Match: TORONTO

Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in other ways (15-20 O/U against NL, 23-43 O/U at NIGHT)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (18-11, +8.72 units)

System Match: CINCINNATI

Trend: Cincinnati trends UNDER at HOME (26-35 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

(925) MILWAUKEE (65-57) at (926) TEXAS (72-49)

Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (49-37, +8.12 units)

System Match: MILWAUKEE

Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (17-32-2 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (35-24 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (53-29, +7.75 units)

System Match: TEXAS

 

(927) PITTSBURGH (54-67) at (928) MINNESOTA (63-59)

Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (49-36-4, +9.40 units)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (41-26 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Pittsburgh not good against AL teams (14-23, -8.65 units)

System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH

Trend: Minnesota trending UNDER against NL teams (12-18 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

 

(929) CHICAGO-AL (48-73) at (930) COLORADO (46-75)

Trend: Chicago bad against NL teams (12-22, -7.46 units)

System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Trend: Colorado slight OVER as ML favorite (10-6 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (28-53, -14.40 units)

System Match: FADE COLORADO

 

(931) DETROIT (54-66) at (932) CLEVELAND (58-63)  (DH Game #2)

Trend: Detroit good in division (22-14, +11.57 units)

System Match: DETROIT

Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 5-1 UNDER stretch this season

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-27 O/U!)

System Match: UNDER

 

Top Head-To-Head Series Trends

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.

NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAY TODAY

 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

TEXAS          

LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 6-20 (23.1%) -13.23 units, ROI: -50.9% 

Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/18 vs. Milwaukee

System Match: FADE TEXAS