VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, October 20

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VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, October 20

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, October 20, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long

A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.

System Matches: HOUSTON

 

Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.

 

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles

ROAD FAVORITES are on a 5-14 SU skid (-12.77 units, ROI: -67.2%)

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA

 

Coming off wins/losses

HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 17-15 SU (-1.37 units, ROI: -4.3%) and 18-14 on run lines (6.85 units, ROI: 21.4%) in their L32 tries.

System Matches: PLAY TEXAS

 

Series wins status

HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 75-55 SU (-0.27 units, ROI: -0.2%) and 69-61 on run lines (18.56 units, ROI: 14.3%) since 2015.

System Matches: PLAY TEXAS

 

Stats from last game trends

Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-48 SU (-26.09 units, ROI: -29.6%) and 28-60 on run lines (-23.40 units, ROI: -27.2%) since 2012.

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA

 

Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just one or second runs are on a 16-5 SU (11.05 units, ROI: 52.6%) surge since 2016.

System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA

 

MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 22-26 SU (-7.02 units, ROI: -14.6%) and 21-27 on run lines (-8.62 units, ROI: -18%) skid since 2019.

System Matches: FADE HOUSTON

 

Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 26-46 SU (-15.05 units, ROI: -20.9%) since 2016.

System Matches: FADE HOUSTON

 

Trends based upon regular season records

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 37-29 SU (14.76 units, ROI: 22.4%) and 42-24 on run lines (12.08 units, ROI: 18.3%) in playoff games.

System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA

 

Totals angles

The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.

 

LCS Round Angles

Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, though, going 33-29 (+12.90 units, ROI: 20.8%) since 2018.

System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON, PLAY ARIZONA

 

Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 37-54 SU (-20.45 units, ROI: -22.5%).

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA

 

The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series WIN in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 21-31 SU (-14.5 units, ROI: -27.9%) since 2015.

System Matches: FADE HOUSTON

 

Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 24-15 SU (+15.5 units, ROI: -39.7%) and 28-11 RL (+9.45 units, ROI: -24.2%) run since 2003 in the LCS round.

System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA

 

Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 10-26 SU (-21.75 units, ROI: -60.4%) and 11-25 (-17.9 units, ROI: -49.7%) on run lines since 2005.

System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA

 

On Game 4 totals, OVERS have been HUGE since 2006, going 27-7-1 for +19.3 units, a ROI of 56.8%.

System Matches: PLAY OVER in PHI-ARI

 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent

Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 312-286 (52.2%) for +40.13 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.7%.

System Matches: PLAY TEXAS

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, whether the team is playing at home or on the road doesn’t matter. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches: FADE HOUSTON

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’ll want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA

 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: HOUSTON -105 (+7 difference)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: HOUSTON-TEXAS UNDER 8.5 (-0.3 difference), PHILADELPHIA-ARIZONA UNDER 9.5 (-0.6 difference)

 

MLB Top Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(911) HOUSTON (95-75) at (912) TEXAS (97-74)

Trend: Houston is leading season series (11-6 record)

System Match: HOUSTON

Trend: 9 of L11 games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER

System Match: OVER

Trend: Houston much better on the ROAD (55-30, +20.32 units)

System Match: HOUSTON

Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (62-51 O/U)

System Match: OVER

Trend: Houston good record against LH starters (29-22)

System Match: HOUSTON

Trend: Texas good record at HOME (51-33, +3.56 units)

System Match: TEXAS

Trend: LOW-SCORING Game 1 with these same two starting pitchers (2-0 final score)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Texas has a 10-6 record all-time in ALCS games

System Match: TEXAS

 

(913) PHILADELPHIA (97-74) at (914) ARIZONA (90-80)

Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (32-46 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Arizona pretty good against LH starters (30-21, +8.58 units)

System Match: ARIZONA

Trend: ROAD teams are 0-3 on the run line in this postseason series

System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Philadelphia pretty good vs. LH starters (32-22, +5.29 units)

System Match: PHILADELPHIA

Trend: Philadelphia very slight UNDER at NIGHT (47-50 O/U)

System Match: UNDER

Trend: Philadelphia leading season series (6-4 record)

System Match: PHILADELPHIA

 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY