VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, October 27
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, October 27, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): ARIZONA
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: ARIZONA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 75-59 SU (-5.47 units, ROI: -4.1%) and 70-64 on run lines (16.08 units, ROI: 12%) since 2015.
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 27-47 SU (-15.05 units, ROI: -20.3%) since 2016.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 40-30 SU (17.89 units, ROI: 25.6%) and 45-25 on run lines (13.60 units, ROI: 19.4%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVER’s have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Nine top MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 15-23 slide in the L38 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-14.85 Units, -39.1% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, particularly the divisional round, so be careful not to overvalue this factor when it comes to the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road as well. Obviously, these numbers don’t include the 2020 series, which was played in a neutral environment.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the OVER in WORLD SERIES games over the last 14 years. However in games with totals of eight or higher, UNDER holds an edge of 16-10 in that span (+4.3 Units, 16.5% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Typically, pitching, especially deep in games, takes center stage in the World Series. Both of these teams have solid bullpens to bolster above-average starting rotations. For as well as the teams’ lineups might hit, both on paper and in playoff action to date, higher totaled World Series games have leaned UNDER of late.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
WORLD SERIES system #6:
WORLD SERIES Game 1 HOME TEAMS are on an 8-4 run (80%, +2.8 Units, 23.3% R.O.I.)
Analysis: In the system above, we showed that it’s hard to string back-to-back wins together in the World Series. Well, for Game 1, the advantage has gone definitively to the hosts recently. Naturally, the Game 2 play is usually the road team.
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 275-130 (68%) for +49.16 units and an R.O.I. of 12.2%!
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +142 (+37 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-TEXAS UNDER 8.5 (-0.3 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(941) ARIZONA (93-81) at (942) TEXAS (99-75)
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (60-50, +12.98 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER vs. AL teams (16-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona RHP Zac Gallen hasn’t been great lately (22.1 IP, 24 hits allowed, 5.24 ERA in postseason)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona is leading season series (3-1, including 3-0 in the last three games)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (58-46 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas dominant at HOME (51-34, +2.41 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is 3-2 all-time in WS Home games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is 0-2 in WS appearances while Arizona is 1-0
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
TEXAS
LETDOWN after series vs. HOU ASTROS: 3-7 in the last 10 games following a series vs. Houston
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
