VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, October 23
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Monday, October 23, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! These are, in essence, the definition of overpriced favorites: teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle was 5-3 in the final week and again lost –2.4 units. This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit!
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
HOME FAVORITES of -190 or higher are on a run of 23-10 SU (+2.87 units, ROI: 8.7%)
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-110 SU (-53.81 units, ROI: -26.9%)
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce back options, going 17-16 SU (-2.52 units, ROI: -7.6%) and 19-14 on run lines (7.85 units, ROI: 23.8%) in their last 33 tries.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 64-39 SU (21.38 units, ROI: 20.8%) and 56-47 on run lines (18.23 units, ROI: 17.7%) since 2013.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 75-57 SU (-2.42 units, ROI: -1.8%) and 70-62 on run lines (18.08 units, ROI: 13.7%) since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-49 SU (-27.44 units, ROI: -30.8%) and 28-61 on run lines (-24.40 units, ROI: -27.4%) since 2012.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more run are on a 23-26 SU (-6.02 units, ROI: -12.3%) and 21-28 on run lines (-9.62 units, ROI: -19.6%) skid since 2019.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 38-30 SU (14.90 units, ROI: 21.9%) and 43-25 on run lines (11.60 units, ROI: 17.1%) in playoff games.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 36-30 (+15.06 units, ROI: 22.8%) since 2018.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA, PLAY TEXAS
Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 37-55 SU (-21.80 units, ROI: -23.7%).
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE HOUSTON
The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 22-32 SU (-14.5 units, ROI: -26.9%) since 2015.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE TEXAS
Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2012, as they have won 10 of the last 11 games both outright (+9.88 units, ROI: 89.8%) and on run lines (+11.35 units, ROI: 103%)
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-16 SU (-14.27 units, ROI: -57.1%) since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Game 7 home teams have won four of the last five tries since 2007 (+3.05 units, ROI: 61%), adding a 4-1 (+3.45 units. ROI: 69%) record on run lines.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Not surprisingly, UNDERS have been the total of choice in Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 7-2 (+4.75 units, ROI: 52.8%) in the last nine.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in TEX-HOU
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 312-287 (52.1%) for +38.98 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 412-342 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.82 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.7%.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +160 (+32 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (5 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -125 (+5 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS-HOUSTON UNDER 9 (-0.5 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(931) ARIZONA (91-81) at (932) PHILADELPHIA (98-75)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER vs. RH starters (54-60 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona lost Game 2 10-0 with these same starting pitchers
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: ROAD teams are 1-4 on the run line in this postseason series
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Philadelphia dominant at HOME (6-0 this postseason)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good record vs. RH starters (66-52)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia very slight UNDER at NIGHT (48-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia leading season series (7-5 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(933) TEXAS (98-75) at (934) HOUSTON (96-76)
Trend: Texas has an 11-7 record all-time in ALCS games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: ROAD team has won all six games in this series
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas slight OVER at NIGHT (57-46 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: RHP Max Scherzer didn’t pitch well in Game 3 vs Houston (4.0 IP, 5 ER)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Houston is leading season series (12-7 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: 10 of the last 12 games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (63-51 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: HOUSTON is 2-2 in Game 7s since 2015
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
