VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, September 25
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Monday, September 25, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): SAN DIEGO, TEXAS, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Matches: HOUSTON, NY YANKEES
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 221-152 for +15.57 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches: TEXAS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since September 11, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 112-78 for +15.75 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 8.3% after the past seven days.
System Matches: HOUSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY (some tomorrow)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-NY YANKEES OVER 7 (+1.2)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) SAN DIEGO (77-79) at (902) SAN FRANCISCO (77-79)
Trend: San Diego LHP Blake Snell has been DOMINANT lately (given up only 18 earned runs in L22 starts)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not great against RH starters (50-60, -31.90 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: HOME team is 8-2 in season series
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER against LH starters (18-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(903) TEXAS (87-68) at (904) LOS ANGELES-AL (70-86)
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (27-15, +6.05 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (53-41 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA bad at NIGHT (44-61, -24.34 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division games (27-15 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(905) HOUSTON (85-71) at (906) SEATTLE (84-71)
Trend: Houston much better on the ROAD (46-29, +12.10 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (57-46 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle dominating season series (8-2 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against RH starters (64-49 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(909) ARIZONA (82-73) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (78-77)
Trend: Arizona heavy UNDER against AL teams (14-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona good with RHP Merrill Kelly starting recently (won 5 of L7 games)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: NYY better during the DAY (29-26 record)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER against RH starters (53-67 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/26)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/26)
