VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, August 26

VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, August 26

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, August 26, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Top MLB Resources:

• Today's MLB Games
• Parlay Calculator
• Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines
• MLB Odds
• MLB Betting Splits

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, NY METS

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%

In games this season through Friday 8/25 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 122-89 record, but for -89.60 units. This is an R.O.I. of -42.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.

System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE PHILADELPHIA

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent

My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 114-41 for +28.45 units as of Friday 8/25. This comes after a 6-0 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +18.4%!

System Matches: SEATTLE, BALTIMORE

Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid

A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em’). After a 7-4 performance the last couple of days, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 283-288 for +63.08 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11%!

System Matches: CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, NY METS

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks

After an 11-10 (+2.97 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 193-195 for -34.51 units, an R.O.I. of -8.9%. After a 4-6 result (-0.75 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 74-93 for -20.44 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.2%.

System Matches: 2-game – FADE WASHINGTON, FADE OAKLAND

3+ games – FADE ARIZONA

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks

In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 191-127 for +23.04 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 7.2%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, -3.33 units on a 5-5 performance.

System Matches: ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks

Updating the results since 8/14 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 195-150 for +8.36 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a negative 4-6 week and have now gone 96-63 for +22.53 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 14.5% after the past seven days.

System Matches: 2-game – MIAMI, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

3-game – TORONTO, HOUSTON, NY METS

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent

Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 304-270 (53%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%.

System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game

Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.

System Matches: FADE OAKLAND, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE ARIZONA

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing

You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.

System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE TEXAS

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.

System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE ARIZONA, FADE SEATTLE

HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long

MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 790-661 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.62 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.9%.

System Matches: NY METS, TAMPA BAY

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:

Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 52-116 (-49.60 units, ROI: -29.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.

System Matches: FADE TEXAS

Losing Streak Betting System #5:

Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 65-50 outright (+8.84 units, ROI: 7.7%).

System Matches: TEXAS

Losing Streak Betting System #7:

The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 91-84 (+21.59 units, ROI: 12.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.

System Matches: TEXAS

Winning Streak Betting System #1:

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 160-75 (+25.42 units, ROI: 10.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.

System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA

Winning Streak Betting System #3:

The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 113-79 (+18.98 units, ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.

System Matches: MILWAUKEE

Winning Streak Betting System #4:

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 139-85 in their last 224 tries (+27.86 units, ROI: 12.4%).

System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: WASHINGTON (+27), CINCINNATI (+18), NY YANKEES (+22), COLORADO (+36), NY METS (+29)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: ATLANTA (+31), SEATTLE (+18), HOUSTON (+24), LA DODGERS (+18)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: ATLANTA-SAN FRANCISCO OVER 8 (+0.9), NY YANKEES-TAMPA BAY OVER 7 (+1.2), TEXAS-MINNESOTA OVER 8 (+0.7), COLORADO-BALTIMORE OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:

System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), LA DODGERS-BOSTON UNDER 10 (-0.7)

MLB Top Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.