VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, October 7
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 7, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): BALTIMORE, HOUSTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE ARIZONA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks this season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”.
System Matches: HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
HOME FAVORITES of -190 or higher are on a run of 23-8 SU (+6.9 units, ROI: 22.3%)
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY LA DODGERS
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 72-50 SU (4.83 units, ROI: 4.0%) and 66-56 on run lines (19.90 units, ROI: 16.3%) since ’15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 39-41 SU (-18.53 units, ROI: -23.2%) and 28-52 on run lines (-14.55 units, ROI: -18.2%) since 2012.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 98 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 46-52 SU (-25.55 units, ROI: -26.1%) since ’19.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE ATLANTA, FADE LA DODGERS
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 15-19 SU (-10.7 units, ROI: -31.5%) and 12-22 on run lines (-11.6 units, ROI: -34.1%) in playoff games.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE ATLANTA, FADE LA DODGERS
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 32-24 SU (13.84 units, ROI: 24.7%) and 37-19 on run lines (13.8 units, ROI: 24.6%) in playoff games.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA, PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVER’s have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vig’s have been heavily shaded towards UNDER’s. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
System Matches (SLIGHT): PLAY OVER in all 4 games
Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been significant in the divisional round since 2017, as hosts are on a surge of 52-30 SU (14.2 units, ROI: 17.3%) and 48-34 on run lines (19.9 units, ROI: 24.3%) in that span.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY BALTIMORE, PLAY HOUSTON, PLAY LA DODGERS
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host has been trailing or was even in the series. Those teams are on a surge of 17-5 SU (9.95 units, ROI: 45.2%) and 17-5 on run lines (14.75 units, ROI: 67%).
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY BALTIMORE, PLAY HOUSTON, PLAY LA DODGERS
Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 29-14 SU (+11.55 units, ROI: 26.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY BALTIMORE, PLAY HOUSTON, PLAY LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE HOUSTON, FADE ATLANTA
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 813-691 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.25 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.9%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 411-340 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.42 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 53-54 (-24.18 units, ROI: -22.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MINNESOTA-HOUSTON UNDER 8 (-0.7), ARIZONA-LA DODGERS UNDER 8 (-0.9)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (92-72) at (902) ATLANTA (104-58)
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (43-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia leads season series in games at Atlanta (4-3 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia 0-4 against RHP Spencer Strider this season
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (48-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (75-36, +9.30 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta used to playoffs, have revenge on the mind (lost to Philadelphia in NLDS last year)
System Match: ATLANTA
(903) TEXAS (92-72) at (904) BALTIMORE (101-61)
Trend: Texas slight OVER vs AL East/Central (35-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (37-24, +5.85 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Baltimore slight UNDER at HOME (34-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore is 11-5 all-time in ALDS games
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good vs RH starters (65-44, +19.34 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES tied this season (3-3)
(905) MINNESOTA (89-75) at (906) HOUSTON (90-72)
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER during the DAY (30-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota leading season series (4-2 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Houston is used to postseason play (made it to ALCS or WS every year since 2017)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston not as good at HOME (39-42, -33.09 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(907) ARIZONA (86-78) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (100-62)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at NIGHT (43-52 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona not good against LAD on the road this season (2-5 record)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: LAD LHP Clayton Kershaw has won last 13 starts in home games against Arizona
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (75-41, +11.24 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
BALTIMORE
LETDOWN after series vs. BOSTON: 9-18 (33%) -8.25 units, ROI: -30.6%
Next betting opportunity: Saturday 10/7 vs. Texas
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
