VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, August 13
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, August 13, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PITTSBURGH (GAME 1 AND 2), ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, NY YANKEES, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Highly-priced better bullpen teams were just 11-9 this past seven days and lost another -8.81 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 8/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 195-113 record, but for -64.55 units. This is an R.O.I. of -21%!
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE TAMPA BAY
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 45-49 for -65.82 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season, it remains at -70%!
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a phenomenal 19-8 (+14.15 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 264-259 for +67.36 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12.9%!
System Match: SEATTLE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 8-8 (+2.44 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 178-174 for -31.08 units, an R.O.I. of -8.8%. After a 6-4 result (+3.74 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-84 for -17.51 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -11.4%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE TEXAS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 170-110 for +28.5 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 10.2%.
System Matches: ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, MILWAUKEE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/31 of when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 173-132 for +9.94 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 84-56 for +18.13 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 13%.
System Matches: 3+ games – TORONTO, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 302-269 (52.9%) for +47.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.3%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES, FADE OAKLAND, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE COLORADO, FADE BALTIMORE
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 784-655 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +43.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: SEATTLE
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-182 (56.2%) for +50.2 units and an R.O.I. of 12.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 120-98 run (+46.55 units, ROI: 21.4%).
System Matches: COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 154-73 (+23.28 units, ROI: 10.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI GAME 1 (+20), COLORADO (+72), CLEVELAND (+22), TEXAS (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH GAME 2 (+15), SAN DIEGO (+22), HOUSTON (+43), WASHINGTON (+22), TORONTO (+15), NY YANKEES (+17), PHILADELPHIA (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO-ARIZONA OVER 9 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DETROIT-BOSTON UNDER 9.5 (-0.8)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(951) CINCINNATI (61-57) at (952) PITTSBURGH (52-64) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (23-26, -3.17 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending under in DAY games (20-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER as ML underdog (43-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh more UNDER in DAY games (21-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) ATLANTA (75-41) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (52-65)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL East (25-6, +14.80 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER in NIGHT games (42-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (9-28, -18.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER in HOME games (17-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(955) COLORADO (45-72) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (70-46)
Trend: Colorado bad against NL West (7-24, -12.95 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado decent bet against LH starters (18-20, +5.85 units)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: LAD not good during the DAY (16-19, -12.30 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (18-18, -11.60 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(957) SAN DIEGO (56-61) at (958) ARIZONA (58-59)
Trend: San Diego not as good against RH starters (34-44, -28.19 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego slight UNDER as ML favorite (38-46-6)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (20-25, -7.55 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona more UNDER at HOME (22-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(959) DETROIT (53-64) at (960) BOSTON (61-56)
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER in DAY games (24-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Boston good record against AL Central/West teams (27-20)
System Match: BOSTON
(961) CLEVELAND (56-62) at (962) TAMPA BAY (71-48)
Trend: Cleveland not good as ML underdog (19-30, -8.20 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (40-21, +6.15 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good as ML favorite (64-33, +10.15 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (36-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-60) at (964) HOUSTON (68-50)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in divisional games (21-11 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA trending OVER as ML underdog (28-17-6 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston dominant in divisional games (26-13, +9.45 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
(965) BALTIMORE (72-45) at (966) SEATTLE (63-53)
Trend: Baltimore best in MLB as ML favorite (39-21, +10.93 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good against AL teams (54-31, +23.58 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Seattle has been hot (9-1 in last 10 games)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending UNDER in DAY games (16-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) OAKLAND (33-84) at (968) WASHINGTON (52-66)
Trend: Oakland bad in DAY games (9-40, -25.00 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Washington more OVER as ML favorite (7-4 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (25-25, +13.70 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (24-34, -2.81 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(969) MINNESOTA (61-58) at (970) PHILADELPHIA (65-53)
Trend: Philadelphia better against AL teams (25-15, +7.35 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (30-18, +7.25 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER against AL (16-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(971) CHICAGO-NL (61-56) at (972) TORONTO (65-54)
Trend: Chicago trending OVER against AL teams (23-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (22-12, +7.28 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in many ways (13-19 O/U against NL, 18-34 O/U at HOME, 35-55-3 O/U as ML favorite)
System Match: UNDER
(973) NEW YORK-AL (60-57) at (974) MIAMI (61-57)
Trend: NYY good during the DAY (27-15, +9.75 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Miami good against AL teams (24-16, +10.38 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami not good as ML underdog (19-32, -6.60 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (34-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(975) MILWAUKEE (64-54) at (976) CHICAGO-AL (47-71)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (48-35, +9.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (25-44-4 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(977) TEXAS (70-47) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (62-55)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (30-17, +7.05 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (24-27, -10.68 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER as ML favorite (27-44-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(979) CINCINNATI (61-57) at (980) PITTSBURGH (52-64) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Cincinnati better in NIGHT games (38-31, +13.55 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati more OVER in NIGHT games (39-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cincinnati trending OVER as ML underdog (43-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (39-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 8/11-Sun 8/13
Trend: Detroit is 1-8 (11%, -6.36 units) in the last nine games vs. Boston
The R.O.I. on this trend is -70.67%.
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 8/11-Sun 8/13
Trend: Cincinnati is 1-8 (11%, -7.1 units) in the last nine games at Pittsburgh
The R.O.I. on this trend is 78.9%.
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow, 8/14)
