VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, October 22
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, October 22, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks this season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.”
System Matches: HOUSTON
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-109 SU (-52.59 units, ROI: -26.4%)
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 64-38 SU (22.60 units, ROI: 22.2%) and 56-46 on run lines (19.23 units, ROI: 18.9%) since ’13.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have been a profitable bet lately, going 35-30 (+14.04 units, ROI: 21.6%) since ’18.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS
Game 6’s have belonged to home teams since 2012, as they have won 10 straight games both outright (+11.1 units, ROI: 111%) & on run lines (+12.35 units, ROI: 124%)
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-15 SU (-13.05 units, ROI: -54.4%) since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (14 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -120 (+14 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(925) TEXAS (97-75) at (926) HOUSTON (96-75)
Trend: Texas has a10-7 record all-time in ALCS games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: ROAD team has won all five games in this series
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas slight OVER at NIGHT (56-46 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (29-16, +6.44 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: RHP Nathan Eovaldi stats in the last two postseason years against Houston (15.1 IP, 11 ER 6.46 ERA)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Houston is leading season series (12-6 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: 9 of L11 games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (62-51 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
