VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, September 17
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, September 17, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Monday, September 11, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 145-98 record, but for -89.41 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.8%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 133-48 for +29.99 units as of Tuesday, September 12. This comes after a 7-3 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +16.6%! Since my introduction of this system four weeks ago, the results are 29-7 for +11.34 units.
System Matches: HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 311-314 for +69.4 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%!
System Matches: CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 213-225 for -39.56 units, an R.O.I. of -9.0%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 83-108 for -27.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.1%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI, FADE ARIZONA,
3+ games – FADE COLORADO, FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 217-144 for +23.71 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.6%.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 9/4, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 110-74 for +19.71 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 10.7% after the past seven days.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO CUBS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE MILWAUKEE
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE ARIZONA, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 803-680 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.62 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.1%.
System Match: PITTSBURGH
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 69-55 outright (+6.93 units, ROI: 5.6%).
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 94-92 (+16.34 units, ROI: 8.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: LA ANGELS, CHICAGO CUBS
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 43-38 (+7.4 units, ROI: 9.1%) in their last 81 tries to extend streaks.
System Match: COLORADO
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 117-83 (+19.70 units, ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: COLORADO
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT (+26)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON-TORONTO OVER 8 (+1.0), TEXAS-CLEVELAND OVER 8 (+0.8), HOUSTON-KANSAS CITY OVER 9.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-ARIZONA UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ATLANTA (96-52) at (902) MIAMI (77-72)
Trend: Atlanta winning season series (9-3 record)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta good against LH starters (20-8, +6.42 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Miami pretty good during the DAY (35-29, +4.84 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending OVER in divisional games (25-18 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) CINCINNATI (78-72) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (68-80)
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (27-32, -4.23 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER during the DAY (24-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (24-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM awful against LH starters (14-31, -27.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
(905) WASHINGTON (65-84) at (906) MILWAUKEE (84-64)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (34-41, +16.37 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better bet during the DAY (29-32, +12.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Milwaukee bad against LH starters (18-23, -10.25 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good at HOME (45-29, +5.57 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(907) PHILADELPHIA (81-67) at (908) ST LOUIS (65-83)
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (35-23, +5.20 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good against NL Central/West (35-25 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (27-22, -1.65 units)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (37-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (75-74) at (910) COLORADO (56-92)
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (29-34, -12.98 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER against RH starters (46-56 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado more UNDER against LH starters (17-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(911) CHICAGO-NL (78-71) at (912) ARIZONA (78-72)
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER against NL West/East (21-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona pretty good at NIGHT (50-44, +6.45 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (30-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: SEASON SERIES (CHI 1 – ARI 5)
System Match: LEAN ARIZONA
(913) TAMPA BAY (92-58) at (914) BALTIMORE (92-56)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (32-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good record vs RH starters (71-50)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Baltimore more OVER during the DAY (27-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Baltimore good at HOME (44-30 record)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(915) BOSTON (74-75) at (916) TORONTO (82-67)
Trend: Boston pretty good against LH starters (22-17, +3.18 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER a couple of ways (26-19 O/U in division, 30-25 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (28-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(917) TEXAS (82-66) at (918) CLEVELAND (71-78)
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (32-22, +2.41 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good record against AL Central/East (37-23, +8.04 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Cleveland bad against LH starters (21-33, -21.41 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at NIGHT (39-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at HOME (25-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(919) HOUSTON (83-66) at (920) KANSAS CITY (48-101)
Trend: Houston better bet on the ROAD (45-29, +11.10 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Kansas City not good against LH starters (11-25, -10.00 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against AL West/East (31-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) MINNESOTA (78-71) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (57-92)
Trend: Minnesota not as good during the DAY (30-32, -12.02 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (36-52-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago bad against RH starters (43-69, -23.97 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES (MIN 8 – CHI 4)
(923) DETROIT (69-79) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (68-81)
Trend: Detroit heavy OVER against LH starters (22-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit awful against AL West/East (19-40 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: LAA decent during the DAY (25-22, +2.66 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
(925) NEW YORK-AL (76-73) at (926) PITTSBURGH (69-80)
Trend: NYY better during the DAY (29-24, +0.12 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Pittsburgh not as good against AL teams (18-27, -7.87 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against LH starters (28-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(927) SAN DIEGO (71-78) at (928) OAKLAND (46-102)
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (46-59, -33.98 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego decent against interleague teams (24-18 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Oakland not good during the DAY (12-48, -29.58 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland not great against NL teams (14-31, -8.47 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
(929) LOS ANGELES-NL (90-57) at (930) SEATTLE (81-67)
Trend: LAD not as good during the DAY (22-20, -7.55 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD heavy OVER against AL teams (30-9 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good at HOME (41-32 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending UNDER during the DAY (22-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/19)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Thursday 9/21)
