VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, August 24
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Thursday, August 24, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TAMPA BAY, LA DODGERS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Wednesday, August 23, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 121-86 record, but for -84.32 units. This is an R.O.I. of -40.7%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 112-41 for +26.45 units as of Wednesday 8/23. This comes after a 6-0 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +17.3%!
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 55-55 for -67.84 units! However, this angle was 5-1 last week and won 3.1 units, a rare winning week. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -61.7%!
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a 2-1 performance yesterday (+1.26 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 281-285 for +62.94 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%!
System Match: CINCINNATI
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 11-10 (+2.97 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 193-195 for -34.51 units, an R.O.I. of -8.9%. After a 4-6 result (-0.75 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 73-93 for -21.44 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.9%.
System Match: 3+ games – FADE ARIZONA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 190-127 for +22.04 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 7.0%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, -3.33 units on a 5-5 performance.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/14 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 194-148 for +9.44 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a negative 4-6 week and have now gone 96-63 for +22.53 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 14.2% after the past seven days.
System Match: 2-game – MINNESOTA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1431-1335 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1681 (43.3%) for -172.41 units and an R.O.I. of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE OAKLAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE HOUSTON, FADE ARIZONA, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 268-123 (68.5%) for +56.48 units and an R.O.I. of 14.4%!
System Match: NY YANKEES
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 65-48 outright (+10.86 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Match: TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 91-83 (+22.61 units, ROI: 13.0%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+31), WASHINGTON (+30)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+33), LA DODGERS (+47)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 (-0.55), BOSTON-HOUSTON UNDER 9 (-0.55)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. >> See situational records for each team.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (66-60) at (902) PITTSBURGH (57-70)
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in divisional play (20-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cubs have won 10 of last 11 starts by LHP Justin Steele
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Cubs have won L7 against Pittsburgh (6-0 this season)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER a few ways (43-28 O/U at NIGHT, 37-23 O/U at HOME, 22-15 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: OVER
(903) CINCINNATI (67-61) at (904) ARIZONA (66-61)
Trend: Cincinnati pretty good against NL East/West (29-25, +6.98 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better and score more at NIGHT (43-33 record, 41-34 O/U)
System Match: CINCINNATI, OVER
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (43-36, +8.86 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (23-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(905) BOSTON (67-60) at (906) HOUSTON (72-56)
Trend: Boston good in AL games (48-36, +10.81 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Houston slight UNDER in DAY games (19-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (35-30, -10.92 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(907) TORONTO (70-57) at (908) BALTIMORE (78-48)
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in NIGHT games (24-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore good against Toronto this season (9-3 record)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER a few ways (22-17 O/U in divisional play, 39-34 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(909) TEXAS (72-54) at (910) MINNESOTA (65-62)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER on the ROAD (25-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota not great bet as ML favorite (52-41, -11.68 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER against LH starters (12-17 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(911) OAKLAND (36-91) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (50-77)
Trend: Oakland trending OVER multiple ways (32-14 O/U against AL Central/East, 35-23 O/U on the ROAD, 38-32 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland okay bet at NIGHT (27-48, -4.17 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Chicago trends OVER as ML favorite (27-16-2 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago is bad against AL East/West (18-36, -17.79 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(913) WASHINGTON (58-69) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (61-65)
Trend: Washington good bet on the ROAD (29-33, +16.19 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington good bet during the DAY (27-26, +15.24 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: NYY good record against LH starters (14-9, +2.65 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY good during the DAY (27-18, +5.78 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
(915) COLORADO (48-78) at (916) TAMPA BAY (77-51)
Trend: Colorado not good against RH starters (30-56, -15.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (42-22, +6.35 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (39-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(917) LOS ANGELES-NL (76-48) at (918) CLEVELAND (60-66)
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (55-30, +11.80 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good during the DAY (18-19, -10.30 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD trending OVER in interleague games (25-7 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cleveland bad offense recently (1-6 O/U in L7 games)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland decent as HOME ML underdog (12-9 record)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 8/28)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next couple tomorrow 8/25)
