VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, August 31
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Thursday, August 31, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 5-11 (-5.25 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 199-204 for -36.76 units, an R.O.I. of -9.1%. After a 3-5 result (-2.61 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 76-99 for -25.80 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.7%.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 198-132 for +22.44 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.8%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, with -1.2 units on a 10-7 performance.
System Matches: ATLANTA, NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 793-666 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +40.25 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.8%.
System Match: DETROIT
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 47-48 (-20.95 units, ROI: -21.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA-LA DODGERS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), MIAMI-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.9)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MIAMI (66-67) at (952) WASHINGTON (62-72)
Trend: Miami good against Washington this season (7-2 record)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami struggling recently (1.7 Runs PG in L10, 2-8 record)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Washington profitable as ML underdog (54-65, +22.81 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-36, +0.48 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (69-64) at (954) SAN DIEGO (62-72)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (41-34, +2.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (28-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (35-45 O/U at NIGHT, 25-37 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
(955) ATLANTA (87-45) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-49)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (61-25, +18.92 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (32-19 O/U vs NL Central/West, 47-39 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at HOME (46-21, +10.42 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (63-29, +18.50 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(957) NEW YORK-AL (65-68) at (958) DETROIT (59-74)
Trend: NYY pretty good during the DAY (27-21, +1.60 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER in DAY games (27-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit not great record as HOME ML underdog (21-33 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 9/4)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 9/4)
